Arctic Sea Level Variation in the Context of Climate Change: Accelerated rise period and Change of Key Influencing factors

Abstract

This study finds that sea level height in Arctic marginal sea in melting season enters an accelerated rise period since the beginning of the 21st century. It is found that precipitation is the dominant factor affecting the change of sea level height in melting season in 1979-1998. Polar vortex and Arctic Oscillation become dominant factors since the accelerated rise period, especially in Norwegian Sea, Barents Sea and Kara Sea. Main reason for the change of dominant factors may be that a clockwise surface wind anomaly in strong polar vortex year became more significant in these regions during the accelerated rise period. The strong wind anomaly affects distribution of sea water through processes such as surface wind stress. Specifically, a polar vortex-wind-sea level height mechanism is strengthened, thus affecting the change of sea level height. CESM2 future scenario simulation results show that sea level height will rise by 0.4m by 2100.