Arctic climate and its interaction with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming in a global coupled climate model

Köenigk, Torben; Brodeau, Laurent

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3354-6

Cited by 24 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 81 publications

(83 reference statements)

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“…Koenigk et al (2016). More recent studies however note that the observed trends are not robust when tested over longer time periods and that they seem to be at least partly caused by natural variations (Koenigk and Brodeau 2017). So there does not seem to be conclusive links between the projected climate and the recent variations of temperature and circulation over the Arctic and mid-latitudes.…”

Section: Climate Change Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Dynamical downscaling with the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model (CRCM5) over the CORDEX Arctic domain: effect of large-scale spectral nudging and of empirical correction of sea-surface temperature

et al. 2017

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most notable positive effect over the Arctic is a reduction of the T2m bias over the North Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean in all seasons. Future projections using this method are compared with the results obtained with the traditional 2-step dynamical downscaling (CGCM-RCM) to assess the impact of correcting systematic biases of SST upon future-climate projections. The future projections are mostly similar for the two methods, except for precipitation.

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Section: Climate Change Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Dynamical downscaling with the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model (CRCM5) over the CORDEX Arctic domain: effect of large-scale spectral nudging and of empirical correction of sea-surface temperature

et al. 2017

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“…The rise of surface air temperature has also been anomalously large at high northern latitudes, a feature often termed Arctic Amplification (Chylek et al, 2009;Serreze et al, 2006;Serreze & Barry, 2011). In recent years the surface warming has been the largest in the Barents Sea, where the position of the sea ice edge has been linked to variations in the inflow of Atlantic Water (AW; Årthun et al, 2012;Koenigk & Brodeau, 2017;Onarheim & Årthun, 2017;Onarheim et al, 2015Onarheim et al, , 2018Sandø et al, 2014). For the future decades and century, it is still an open research question to which extent the Arctic Ocean will be dominated by enhanced warming through the surface or by an increased poleward ocean heat transport (Burgard & Notz, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atlantic Water Heat Transport Variability in the 20th Century Arctic Ocean From a Global Ocean Model and Observations

et al. 2018

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Northward ocean heat transport and its variability influence the Arctic sea ice cover, contribute to surface warming or cooling, or simply warm or cool the Arctic Ocean interior. A simulation with the forced global ocean model NorESM20CR, aided by hydrographic observations since 1900, show large decadal fluctuations in the ocean heat transport, with the largest variations in the Atlantic sector. The simulated net poleward ocean heat transport over the last century is about 68 TW, and 88% of this occurs in the Barents Sea Opening (45 TW) and the Fram Strait (15 TW). Typical variations are 40 TW over time scales between 5 and 10 years, related to thermohaline and wind stress forcings. The mean heat transport in the Davis Strait is about 10 TW, and less than 5 TW flows north in the Bering Strait. The core temperature of the Atlantic Water (AW) entering the Arctic Ocean has increased in recent decades, consistent with an ongoing expansion of the Atlantic domain (Atlantification), but earlier warm events are also documented. The temperature of the northward‐flowing AW thus plays a vital role, with decadal variations of around 0.5 ∘C. The Nordic Seas atmosphere contributes with thermodynamic forcing, dampening the advected heat anomalies. In the Barents Sea, variations in the inflow volume flux dominate, while variations in temperature dominate the heat transport in the Fram Strait. There are significant trends over recent decades, also dominated by the Barents Sea that presently has 1 Sv higher volume transport and +1.0 ∘C warmer AW than the long‐term mean.

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“…However, the observed time series are still short and it remains uncertain if the observed linkages between sea ice and atmospheric circulation are really robust or if they might be due to natural variations (Barnes 2013;Screen et al 2014;Sun et al 2016;Koenigk and Brodeau 2017;Ogawa et al 2018). Screen et al (2015) showed that increased greenhouse gas forcing will reduced the risk for cold days over North America.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Arctic sea ice variations on winter temperature anomalies in northern hemispheric land areas

et al. 2018

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Coordinated numerical ensemble experiments with six different state-of-the-art atmosphere models have been used in order to evaluate the respective impact of the observed Arctic sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) variations on air temperature variations in mid and high latitude land areas. Two sets of experiments have been designed; in the first set (EXP1), observed daily sea ice concentration and SST variations are used as lower boundary forcing over 1982-2014 while in the second set (EXP2) the SST variations are replaced by the daily SST climatology. The observed winter 2 m air temperature (T2m) variations are relatively well reproduced in a number of mid and high latitude land areas in EXP1, with best agreement in southwestern North America and northern Europe. Sea ice variations are important for the interannual T2m variations in northern Europe but have limited impact on all other mid and high latitude land regions. In particular, sea ice variations do not contribute to the observed opposite variations in the Arctic and mid latitude in our model experiments. The spread across ensemble members is large and many ensemble members are required to reproduce the observed T2m variations over northern Europe in our models. The amplitude of T2m anomalies in the coldest observed winters over northern Europe is not reproduced by our multi-model ensemble means. However, the sea ice conditions in these respective winters and mainly the thermodynamic response to the ice anomalies lead to an enhanced likelihood for occurrence of colder than normal winters and extremely cold winters. Still, the main reason for the observed extreme cold winters is internal atmospheric dynamics. The coldest simulated northern European winters in EXP1 and EXP2 between 1982 and 2014 show the same large scale T2m and atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns as the observed coldest winters, indicating that the models are well able to reproduce the processes, which cause these cold anomalies. The results are robust across all six models used in this study.

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Arctic climate and its interaction with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming in a global coupled climate model

Cited by 24 publications

References 81 publications

Dynamical downscaling with the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model (CRCM5) over the CORDEX Arctic domain: effect of large-scale spectral nudging and of empirical correction of sea-surface temperature

Dynamical downscaling with the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model (CRCM5) over the CORDEX Arctic domain: effect of large-scale spectral nudging and of empirical correction of sea-surface temperature

Atlantic Water Heat Transport Variability in the 20th Century Arctic Ocean From a Global Ocean Model and Observations

Impact of Arctic sea ice variations on winter temperature anomalies in northern hemispheric land areas

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