Arctic Amplification of Precipitation Changes—The Energy Hypothesis

Abstract

Arctic precipitation increases can freshen the Arctic Ocean surface and reduce sea ice loss, and affect the mass balance of high-latitude glaciers and ice sheets (Bintanja et al., 2018;Bintanja & Selten, 2014;Min et al., 2008). Understanding what drives increased precipitation sensitivity to climate change in the Arctic is fundamental to build confidence in future projections of Arctic precipitation change and narrow their spread.Arctic amplification of both temperature and humidity changes is strongest during the cold season, when incoming solar radiation is low or zero and the Arctic energy budget is dominated by advection of heat from lower latitudes, heat release from the ocean surface and radiative cooling to space (Collins et al., 2013;Serreze & Barry, 2011;Serreze et al., 2007). Enhanced Arctic warming compared to lower latitudes has been attributed to local radiative feedbacks (Stuecker et al., 2018) and increased advection of moist air masses from lower latitudes (Woods & Caballero, 2016). The increased absorption of solar radiation by darker surfaces caused by snow and ice melt (surface albedo feedback) and the weak Arctic infrared cooling to space caused by thermal stratification (lapse-rate feedback) are the most important local feedback mechanisms contributing to Arctic amplification (Hahn et al., 2021;Pithan & Mauritsen, 2014).Prior research on Arctic amplification of precipitation changes has often been based on what we call the moisture hypothesis, arguing that additional moisture supply causes increased precipitation. This hypothesis assumes that Arctic precipitation and its increase under global warming are limited by moisture

Exploiting SMILEs and the CMIP5 Archive to Understand Arctic Climate Change Seasonality and Uncertainty

“…However, this explanation does not seem plausible for CanESM2 and GFDL-CM3 because their SIAs are the smallest among the six SMILEs (Figure S4d in Supporting Information S1). Pithan and Jung (2021) proposed energy-constraint and moisture-constraint mechanisms driving Arctic precipitation change (see their Figure 4). Accordingly, we speculate that these mechanisms in the models may be not simulated well, leading to discrepancies in the seasonal shifts of precipitation.…”

Surface impacts and associated mechanisms of a moisture intrusion into the Arctic observed in mid-April 2020 during MOSAiC

“…Indeed, studies have shown that this Siberian pathway is gaining importance in recent decades (Komatsu et al, 2018;Mewes and Jacobi, 2019). To explain this, several studies have linked the marked retreat of sea ice in the Barents Sea to enhanced local evaporation, moistening, and cyclone-associated precipitation (e.g., Rinke et al, 2019;Crawford et al, 2022), while Pithan and Jung (2021) have questioned the role of local sea-ice changes for the atmospheric moisture budget.…”

Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming

“…However, despite the extensive amount of research on the polar amplification of temperature change, there are other aspects of the climate system that also exhibit polar-amplified changes in response to elevated greenhouse-gas concentrations. For example, under warming, the relative change in precipitation is also predicted to be largest in the polar regions, where a substantial absolute increase in precipitation coincides with small precipitation rates in the present-day climate (Bengtsson et al 2011, Bintanja and Selten 2014, Bintanja and Andry 2017, McCrystall et al 2021, Pithan and Jung 2021.…”

“…The polar amplification of precipitation change has largely been attributed to an increase in poleward moisture transport (Bengtsson et al 2011) and surface evaporation related to sea ice retreat Selten 2014, Kopec et al 2016). However, more recent work that examined GCMs without sea ice loss has challenged this perspective and instead argued that precipitation change in the Arctic is mainly related to local radiative cooling changes that balance latent heat release from precipitation (Pithan and Jung 2021). Yet the exact processes that cause changes in radiative cooling remains unclear, and how these processes influence model projections of precipitation change has not been examined in detail.…”

“…While recent work has shown that regional precipitation change can be energetically constrained (e.g. Muller and O'Gorman 2011, Anderson et al 2018, Labonté and Merlis 2020, Pithan and Jung 2021, the relative role of changes in radiative cooling and poleward energy transport in contributing to model projections of regional precipitation change remains poorly quantified. Arguably, knowledge of the processes that cause regional rather than global precipitation change is of greater consequence for society as this may ultimately inform local policy, particularly for Arctic communities which will experience the largest relative change in precipitation.…”