Archetypical pathways of direct and indirect land-use change caused by Cambodia’s economic land concessions

Abstract

In the global South, a rush of large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) is occurring by governments and transnational and domestic investors seeking to secure access to land in developing countries to produce food, biofuels, and other agricultural commodities. Complex interactions between regional and global market dynamics and local institutional, socioeconomic, and agro-ecological conditions can lead to widely varying causal processes, land-use change (LUC), and socioeconomic and environmental outcomes. Systematic understanding of how characteristics of LSLAs across multiple social and environmental contexts produce spillover effects on local communities, ranging from employment opportunities to displacement and indirect land-use change (iLUC), is lacking. We conceptualize agricultural commodity production and land-acquisition processes associated with LSLAs as catalyzing causal pathways of direct and indirect land-use changes. Using the case of economic land concessions (ELCs) in Cambodia, we employed a novel synthesis research approach combining remote sensing, spatio-temporal statistics, and case study meta-analysis to construct archetypical pathways of the causes, timing, and consequences of ELC-driven land change. Archetypical pathways generally diverged based on specialized or flex commodity crops and rates of direct LUC, and rapid rates of direct LUC tended to cause displacement and iLUC. In contrast, ELCs producing commodity crops associated with more gradual land-use change and/or organized local resistance lead to less iLUC. Systematic knowledge generated through synthesis of local causes and consequences of LSLA-driven land change is now possible and needed to better address the direct and indirect consequences of LSLAs for commodity crop production.

Direct and indirect land-use change caused by large-scale land acquisitions in Cambodia

“…What followed was an abrupt increase in forest clearing after 2012 prompting many new and emerging land disputes that remain unresolved [19,20]. Until now, forest loss due to iLUC, often associated with such land disputes around ELCs [19][20][21], has yet to be quantified.…”

“…Recent findings [21] suggest that ELCs in Cambodia produced iLUC that contributed substantially to total forest loss. The amount of direct LUC and likelihood of iLUC were quantified using a novel synthesis approach combining remote sensing, propensity score matching, survival analysis, and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) of case studies.…”

“…This mixed-methods, triangulation approach resulted in the systematic identification of archetypical pathways of ELCs that did and did not lead to iLUC [21]. Archetype analysis is a comparative approach that seeks to identify a set of recurring, theoretically-grounded 'building-blocks' of factors and/or processes that can be combined in various ways to simply describe or infer causal mechanisms from a population of cases [25].…”

“…Archetypical pathways that did not lead to iLUC included local resistance preventing ELC production, ELC revocation by the Cambodian government, speculative production ELCs exhibiting little to no direct LUC, or ELCs that went into full or partial production [21] (figure 1). Generally, the lack of significant conflict in these cases, either through no or relatively slow ELC implementation, avoided iLUC adjacent to ELC boundaries.…”

“…Generally, the lack of significant conflict in these cases, either through no or relatively slow ELC implementation, avoided iLUC adjacent to ELC boundaries. Archetypical pathways associated with iLUC included land grabs with and without physical displacement of local communities, resettlement of displaced communities, and failed ELCs [21] (figure 1). Land grab pathways often involved political-economic means of dispossession of communal land, exploitation of informal or incomplete land titling of marginalized communities, and/ or a lack of transparency in the concession-granting process.…”