Archaeology and rapid climate changes: from the collapse concept to a panarchy interpretative model

Budja, Mihael

doi:10.4312/dp.42.11

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 103 publications

(71 reference statements)

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“…In any case, the critical component for the eastern Mediterranean was found to consist of increases in the frequency and/or intensity of cold northerly polar/continental (NPC) air outbreaks over the sea that are channelled through gaps in the mountain ranges along the basin's northern margin (section 2.1). So far, no physically consistent assessments exist for the regional climatic impacts of the RCCs, despite the fact that understanding of these events is of central importance for studies concerning vulnerability and response of prehistoric societies to climate and environmental change in the wider Mediterranean region (e.g., Anderson et al, 2007;Biehl and Nieuwenhuyse, 2016;Budja, 2007Budja, , 2015Weiberg et al, 2016;Weiss, 2000; (section 2.4). This study first reviews modern and past expressions of wintertime cold polar/continental air outbreaks from the north over the Aegean Sea, and then develops a physically coherent 2-dimensional Lagrangian assessment of the inferred RCC relationships over the Aegean/eastern Levantine region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model for archaeologically relevant Holocene climate impacts in the Aegean-Levantine region (easternmost Mediterranean)

Rohling

Marino

Grant

et al. 2019

Quaternary Science Reviews

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A repeating pattern of multi-centennial-scale Holocene climate events has been widely (globally) documented, and they were termed Rapid Climate Change (RCC) events. Non-seasalt potassium ion (K +) series in Greenland ice cores provide wellconstrained timings for the events, and a direct timing relationship has been inferred between these events and the frequency of northerly cold polar/continental air outbreaks over the eastern Mediterranean Sea through gaps in the mountain ranges along the northern margin of the basin. There also appears to be a remarkable timing agreement with major archaeological turnover events in the Aegean/Levantine region. Yet no physically consistent assessment exists for understanding the regional climatic impacts of the events around this critical region. We present a simple 2-dimensional Lagrangian model, which yields a broad suite of physically coherent simulations of the impacts of frequency changes in winter-time northerly air outbreaks over the Aegean/Levantine region. We validate this with existing reconstructions from palaeoclimate proxy data, with emphasis on well-validated sea-surface temperature reconstructions and a highly resolved cave speleothem stable oxygen isotope record from Lebanon. Given that the RCCs were clearly marked by negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the region, we find that the predominant climatic impacts of this winter-time mechanism were "cold and wet," in contrast with intercalated "warmer and more arid" conditions of non-RCC periods. More specifically, the RCCs are found to be periods of highly variable conditions, with an overall tendency toward cold and wet conditions with potential for flash flooding and for episodic snow-cover at low altitudes, at least in the lower-altitude (lower 1 to 1.5 km) regions of Crete and the Levant. The modelled winter-anomaly process cannot address underlying longer-term, astronomically forced trends, or the relatively warm and arid anomalies in between RCCs. The latter require further study, for example with respect to potential (summertime?) extension of evaporative subtropical conditions over the region. Finally, our results imply that the "amount effect" observed in Levantine cave δ 18 O (and precipitation or drip-water δ 18 O) may not reflect the conventional concept related to temperature-dependent fractionation and Rayleigh distillation. Instead, it appears to arise from a complex and somewhat counter-intuitive mixing, in shifting proportionalities, between advected (external) and evaporated (Mediterranean) moisture.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model for archaeologically relevant Holocene climate impacts in the Aegean-Levantine region (easternmost Mediterranean)

Rohling

Marino

Grant

et al. 2019

Quaternary Science Reviews

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“…The positive factor loading corresponds to carbonate precipitation that occurred sites is needed. Some processes in the development of ancient societies were connected with palaeoclimatic changes during the Holocene (Budja 2015;Kulkova 2007), and these changes were significant in the steppe zone.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

New interdisciplinary research on Neolithic-Eneolithic sites in the Low Volga River region

et al. 2019

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The Neolithic and Eneolithic sites in the Low Volga River region have been poorly investigated in comparison with other territories due to a small number of excavated sites. On the Algay site and the Oroshaemoe I settlement there is evidence of the earliest appearance of Neolithic pottery and the first sign of domestication in the Eneolithic period within the Volgo-Ural territory. Archaeological, lithological, grain-size analyses, mineralogical-geochemical methods and radiocarbon dating of cultural deposits have been applied to reconstruct the palaeoenvironment in the Holocene in this area. The results show that the landscape-climatic conditions in the steppe area of the Lower Volga basin strongly affected the development and adaptation of ancient societies.

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“…Nevertheless, the changes in the simulated winter conditions can be considered physically consistent: the model simulates a reasonable and internally consistent climate (Goosse 2012;Von Storch 2004). Other events often reported in studies that are based on proxy-reconstructions are the so-called Rapid Climate Changes (RCC) (Mayewski et al 2004;Budja 2015;Weninger et al 2009;Wanner et al 2011).…”

Section: Fig 10 a Convex Spindle-whorl Made From The Head Of A Cattle Femur Bone Weighing 246g From A Furchenstich (Retz-gajary) Context mentioning

confidence: 99%

Tools tell tales – climate trends changing threads in the prehistoric Pannonian Plain

Grabundžija

Russo

2016

Doc. praeh.

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This study of prehistoric textile production on the Pannonian Plain is based on indirect evidence dated to the period between the 5th and 2nd millennium BC; the study of technological trends and changes that occurred in manufacturing traditions concentrates on fibre processing and production. The functionality analysis of spindle-whorls served as a basis for comparing textile production trends with the results of the climate change model. Climatic changes in the area were simulated by means of a moderate-resolution Global Circulation Model (GCM). The simulation covered the mid-to-late Holocene, from 7000 years BP to the pre-industrial period.

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Archaeology and rapid climate changes: from the collapse concept to a panarchy interpretative model

Abstract: The ‘rapid climate change’, ‘cycles of abrupt climate shift’, and ‘cold events’ in the Holocene are discussed in relation to the ‘collapse of civilisation’ concept, and adaptive cycles and the panarchy interpretative model.

Cited by 5 publications

References 103 publications

A model for archaeologically relevant Holocene climate impacts in the Aegean-Levantine region (easternmost Mediterranean)

A model for archaeologically relevant Holocene climate impacts in the Aegean-Levantine region (easternmost Mediterranean)

New interdisciplinary research on Neolithic-Eneolithic sites in the Low Volga River region

Tools tell tales – climate trends changing threads in the prehistoric Pannonian Plain

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