The reliability of cyber-physical systems (CPS) operation is based on the general problem minimization of multi-factor risks, the margin of permissible risk, the forecast of the destabilizing dynamics of risk factors, principles, hypotheses, and axioms that are directly related to the analysis of abnormal situations, accidents, and disasters. To ensure the reliable operation of the CPS, a digital twin is created, which accompanies the operation of the CPS throughout its life cycle. The design of digital twins is based on simulation modelling methods that provide the most realistic representation of a physical environment or object in the virtual world.