2016
DOI: 10.20853/30-2-583
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Applying predictive analytics in identifying students at risk: A case study

Abstract: In this article, a case study is presented of an institutional modelling project whereby the most appropriate learning algorithm for the prediction of students dropping out before or in the second year of study was identified and deployed. This second-year dropout model was applied at programme level using pre-university information and first semester data derived from the Higher Education Data Analyzer (HEDA 1 ) management information reporting and decision support environment at the Cape Peninsula University… Show more

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Cited by 17 publications
(7 citation statements)
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“…Admissions data can predict the need for supporting at-risk first-year students, based on the feeder schools they attended and the marks obtained in matric. The study by Lourens and Bleazard (2016) confirmed the importance of a variety of information on background (pre-university information) in the prediction of at-risk first-year students, who need support to prevent them from dropping out by their second year. Selection data can also help understand and manage whether or not first-year students get selected for academic programmes that were their first, second or last choice.…”
Section: Recruitment and Selectionmentioning
confidence: 71%
“…Admissions data can predict the need for supporting at-risk first-year students, based on the feeder schools they attended and the marks obtained in matric. The study by Lourens and Bleazard (2016) confirmed the importance of a variety of information on background (pre-university information) in the prediction of at-risk first-year students, who need support to prevent them from dropping out by their second year. Selection data can also help understand and manage whether or not first-year students get selected for academic programmes that were their first, second or last choice.…”
Section: Recruitment and Selectionmentioning
confidence: 71%
“…A third data set (validation data) is used to provide a final estimate of the prediction model's performance or accuracy after it is implemented, preventing over-fitting in the process. 46 Every time data is utilised to train a predictive modelling technique, predictive models are produced. To put it another way, data with a strategy for predictive modelling equals a predictive model.…”
Section: Findings and Discussion Developing A Framework For The Deplo...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…With the recent introduction of predictive and learning analytics within higher education, institutions are now seeking more nuanced data to forecast student behaviour to proactively engage students to improve student success measures (Lourens & Bleazard, 2016). For academic libraries, this new emphasis upon predictive and learning analytics represents a need to rethink how data is collected and how librarians can connect academic library outcomes to institutional outcomes such as retention and graduation (Oakleaf, 2010).…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%