Applying landscape metrics to species distribution model predictions to characterize internal range structure and associated changes

Curd, Amelia; Chevalier, Mathieu; Vasquez, Mickaël; Boyé, Aurélien; Firth, Louise B.; Marzloff, Martin P.; Bricheno, Lucy; Burrows, Michael T.; Bush, Laura; Cordier, Céline; Davies, Andrew J.; Green, Mattias; Hawkins, Stephen J.; Lima, Fernando P.; Meneghesso, Claudia; Mieszkowska, Nova; Seabra, Rui; Dubois, Stanislas F.

doi:10.1111/gcb.16496

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 123 publications

(143 reference statements)

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“…Species distribution modeling (SDM), a tool that determines suitable habitats and predicts range shifts under climate change projections, presents an encouraging approach to plan recovery methods for endangered endemic species in regions of high biodiversity (e.g., the Himalaya) [ 10 ]. SDM methods have recently been utilized in fields such as invasion biology, restoration ecology, and conservation ecology to forecast hotspots for the protection and cultivation of endemic and threatened taxa [ 11 , 12 ]. The SDM method, based on the niche conservatism theory, predicts the distribution of species along spatio-temporal gradients using a combination of climatic and other environmental variables with data on species distribution [ 13 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

Haq

Waheed

Ahmad

et al. 2023

Biology

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The distribution of large ungulates is more often negatively impacted by the changing climate, especially global warming and species with limited distributional zones. While developing conservation action plans for the threatened species such as the Himalayan goral (Naemorhedus goral Hardwicke 1825; a mountain goat that mostly inhabits rocky cliffs), it is imperative to comprehend how future distributions might vary based on predicted climate change. In this work, MaxEnt modeling was employed to assess the habitat suitability of the target species under varying climate scenarios. Such studies have provided highly useful information but to date no such research work has been conducted that considers this endemic animal species of the Himalayas. A total of 81 species presence points, 19 bioclimatic and 3 topographic variables were employed in the species distribution modeling (SDM), and MaxEnt calibration and optimization were performed to select the best candidate model. For predicted climate scenarios, the future data is drawn from SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 of the 2050s and 2070s. Out of total 20 variables, annual precipitation, elevation, precipitation of driest month, slope aspect, minimum temperature of coldest month, slope, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature annual range (in order) were detected as the most influential drivers. A high accuracy value (AUC-ROC > 0.9) was observed for all the predicted scenarios. The habitat suitability of the targeted species might expand (about 3.7 to 13%) under all the future climate change scenarios. The same is evident according to local residents as species which are locally considered extinct in most of the area, might be shifting northwards along the elevation gradient away from human settlements. This study recommends additional research is conducted to prevent potential population collapses, and to identify other possible causes of local extinction events. Our findings will aid in formulating conservation plans for the Himalayan goral in a changing climate and serve as a basis for future monitoring of the species.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

Haq

Waheed

Ahmad

et al. 2023

Biology

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“…It is less straightforward to decide whether multiple or single assignments of trend category should be communicated. It is common to see assignment and communication of single‐trend categories (e.g., Figure 3c) based on, for example, mean or median trends (Beale & Lennon, 2012; Curd et al., 2023; MacLeod et al., 2022). This approach has the advantage of yielding a relatively simple message.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assigning trend‐based conservation status despite high uncertainty

White

Stoffels

Whitehead

2023

Conservation Biology

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Estimates of temporal trends in species’ occupancy are essential for conservation policy and planning, but limitations to the data and models often result in very high trend uncertainty. A critical source of uncertainty that degrades scientific credibility is that caused by disagreement among studies or models. Modelers are aware of this uncertainty but usually only partially estimate it and communicate it to decision makers. At the same time, there is growing awareness that full disclosure of uncertainty is critical for effective translation of science into policies and plans. But what are the most effective approaches to estimating uncertainty and communicating uncertainty to decision makers? We explored how alternative approaches to estimating and communicating uncertainty of species trends could affect decisions concerning conservation status of freshwater fishes. We used ensemble models to propagate trend uncertainty within and among models and communicated this uncertainty with categorical distributions of trend direction and magnitude. All approaches were designed to fit an established decision‐making system used to assign species conservation status by the New Zealand government. Our results showed how approaches that failed to fully disclose uncertainty, while simplifying the information presented, could hamper species conservation or lead to ineffective decisions. We recommend an approach that was recently used effectively to communicate trend uncertainty to a panel responsible for setting the conservation status of New Zealand's freshwater fishes.

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“…Data scarcity is also among the reasons why connectivity assessments are rarely empirically validated (Daniel et al, 2023; Foltête et al, 2012; Foltête et al, 2020; Lalechère & Bergès, 2021; Laliberté & St-Laurent, 2020; Wood et al, 2022). Combining multispecies connectivity assessments with species distribution models based on openly accessible data constitutes a promising avenue to empirically test the importance of connectivity for species movement and persistence (Curd et al, 2022; Daniel et al, 2023; Lalechère & Bergès, 2021; Van Moorter et al, 2023; Vasudev et al, 2015). The ensemble connectivity maps generated with our RE-Connect approach could be combined with such species distribution models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid evaluation of habitat connectivity change to safeguard multispecies persistence in human-transformed landscapes

Oehri,

Wood,

Touratier

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Protecting habitat connectivity in fragmented landscapes is essential for safeguarding biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people. Following the Post-2020 Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM-GBF) of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) there is a clear science-policy need to assess habitat connectivity and track its change over time to inform conservation planning.In response to this need we describe an analytical, multi-indicator and multispecies approach for the rapid assessment of habitat connectivity at fine spatial grain and at the extent of an entire ecoregion. Out of 69 connectivity indicators we found through a literature review, we identified a key-set of nine indicators that align with the Essential Biodiversity Variables framework and that are suitable to guide rapid action for connectivity and conservation targets in the KM-GBF. Using these selected indicators, we mapped and evaluated connectivity change from 2011 to 2021 across the ecoregion of the St-Lawrence Lowlands in Quebec (∼30,000 km2) for seven ecoprofile species representing regional forest habitat needs. For the majority of these ecoprofile species, trends over the last decade indicate a decline in effective connected area and metapopulation carrying capacity, mainly via a division of large contiguous habitat into smaller fragments, whereas total habitat area largely remained unchanged.These results highlight that trends in habitat area and connectivity are not necessarily correlated and the urgent need to conserve and restore connectivity in the St-Lawrence Lowlands, in order to meet regional targets under the KM-GBF. Our general approach enables a comprehensive evaluation of connectivity for regional spatial planning for biodiversity. We develop an R-tool to support this analysis and that can be extended to other conservation planning efforts for connectivity.

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Applying landscape metrics to species distribution model predictions to characterize internal range structure and associated changes

Cited by 12 publications

References 123 publications

Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

Assigning trend‐based conservation status despite high uncertainty

Rapid evaluation of habitat connectivity change to safeguard multispecies persistence in human-transformed landscapes

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