Applying Bayesian cognitive models to decisions to drive after drinking

Abstract

Background and aims Despite widespread negative perceptions, the prevalence of alcohol‐impaired driving (AID) in the United States remains unacceptably high. This study used a novel decision task to evaluate whether individuals considered both ride service cost and alcohol consumption level when deciding whether or not to drive, and whether the resulting strategy was associated with engagement in AID. Design A two‐sample study, where sample 1 developed a novel AID decision task to classify participants by decision strategy. Sample 2 was used to cross‐validate the task and examine whether decision strategy classifications were predictive of prior reported AID behavior. Setting A laboratory setting at the University of Missouri, USA. Participants Sample 1 included 38 student participants from introductory psychology classes at the University of Missouri. Sample 2 included 67 young adult participants recruited from the local community. Measurements We developed a decision task that presented hypothetical drinking scenarios that varied in quantity of alcohol consumption (one to six drinks) and the cost of a ride service ($5–25). We applied a Bayesian computational model to classify choices as consistent with either: integrating both ride cost and consumption level (compensatory) or considering only consumption level (non‐compensatory) when making hypothetical AID decisions. In sample 2, we assessed established AID risk factors (sex, recent alcohol consumption, perceived safe limit) and recent (past 3 months) engagement in AID. Findings In sample 1, the majority of participants were classified as using decision strategies consistent with either a compensatory or non‐compensatory process. Results from sample 2 replicated the overall classification rate and demonstrated that participants who used a compensatory strategy were more likely to report recent AID, even after accounting for study covariates. Conclusions In a hypothetical alcohol‐impaired driving (AID) decision task, individuals who considered both consumption level and ride service cost were more likely to report recent AID than those who made decisions based entirely on consumption level.

Decision strategies while intoxicated relate to alcohol-impaired driving attitudes and intentions.

“…Extending previous research on AID decision strategy use (McCarthy et al, 2021) and intoxicated decision making (Obst et al, 2018;George, Rogers, Duka, & 2005;van Ravenzwaaij et al, 2012), we examined changes in decision making strategies under intoxication across the ascending and descending limbs of the BrAC curve. There was not a consistent effect of BrAC limb on decision strategies participants' used.…”

“…In a recent study, we developed a modeling framework and associated decision task to examine the process by which individuals make decisions about driving or using a ride service after consuming alcohol (McCarthy et al, 2021). Individuals were presented with a series of hypothetical scenarios that systematically varied the number of drinks consumed (in a 2-hour period) and the cost of a ride service alternative.…”

“…A limitation of McCarthy et al (2021) is that participants completed the decision task while sober. Although individuals can take preparatory steps prior to consuming alcohol to avoid AID (e.g., securing a designated driver, using a ride service), ultimately, the choice to drive while impaired by alcohol is made while impaired by alcohol.…”

“…The goal of the present study was to further investigate the ecological validity of the McCarthy et al (2021) AID decision task, and subsequent strategy classifications, under acute alcohol intoxication. Participants completed the decision task twice in each session, corresponding to assessment on the ascending (i.e., while breath alcohol concentration [BrAC] was rising) and descending (i.e., while BrAC was decreasing) limb of the BrAC curve, allowing us to test whether individuals were stable in their strategy use or switched strategies across limbs.…”

The effect of acute alcohol intoxication on risk attitude

“…One such task for alcohol impaired driving asks participants to make hypothetical decisions about driving based on the amount of alcohol they have consumed and the cost of an alternative ride home (McCarthy et al, 2020). Decision making patterns on this task were found to be associated with past alcohol impaired driving behavior.…”