Applying Bayesian approach to predict deformations during tunnel construction

Abstract

In this paper a fully probabilistic approach based on the Bayesian statistical method is presented to predict ground settlements in both transverse and longitudinal directions during gradual excavation of a tunnel. To that end, the convergence confinement method is adopted to give estimates of ground deformation numerically. Together with in situ measurements of the evolution of vertical deflections at selected points along the tunnel line, it allows for the construction of a likelihood function and consequently in the framework of Bayesian inference to provide posterior improved knowledge of model parameters entering the numerical analysis. In this regard, the Bayesian updating is first exploited in the material identification step and next used to yield predictions of ground settlement in sections along the tunnel line ahead of the tunnel face. This methodology thus makes it possible to improve original designs by utilizing an increasing number of data (measurements) collected in the course of tunnel construction.

Concrete gravity dams model parameters updating using static measurements

“…The use of Bayesian inference in SHM [26] and, from a broader point of view, in civil engineering fields has recently gained interest as shown by the high number of papers [27,28,29,30].…”

Stress Field Distribution and Deformation Law of Large Deformation Tunnel Excavation in Soft Rock Mass

“…Through numerical simulation and field monitoring, the reserved deformation was finally determined to be 10~35 cm. In addition, in consideration of the measurement uncertainties, a Bayesian approach can be applied to predict deformations to adjust the value [48]. (5) The construction, monitoring and measurement of tunnel in soft rock must be strengthened.…”

Method for Tunnel Displacements Calculation Based on Mobile Tunnel Monitoring System

“…Many scholars have studied tunnel deformation, such as the influence of ground building pile foundation on underground tunnel [ 22 ], installing support in tunnel soil layer to reduce tunnel deformation [ 23 ], or using convergence-confinement method to analyze tunnel deformation [ 24 ]. Some have also established mathematical models for the surrounding soil to analyze the settlement of the tunnel and the surface [ 25 , 26 ]. At this stage, many scholars have studied tunnel convergence measurements; however, our focus is on extracting the section center by tunnel section fitting and disease detection based on tunnel orthophoto images [ 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 ].…”