Applying a Random Encounter Model to Estimate the Asiatic Black Bear (Ursus thibetanus) Density from Camera Traps in the Hindu Raj Mountains, Pakistan

Abstract

Estimating the population density of vulnerable species, such as the elusive and nocturnal Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus), is essential for wildlife conservation and management. We used camera traps and a Random Encounter Model (REM) to estimate the population density of U. thibetanus during the autumn and winter seasons in the Hindu Raj Mountains. We installed 23 camera traps from October to December 2020 and acquired 66 independent pictures of Asiatic black bears over 428 nights of capture. Our results showed that the bears preferred lowland areas with the presence of Quercus spp. We estimated, using the REM, a population density of U. thibetanus of 1.875 (standard error = 0.185) per square kilometer, which is significantly higher than that in other habitats. Our results showed that during autumn and winter, the bear population density tends to concentrate at lower elevations. Forest cover showed a positive correlation with the rates of bear encounters unlike the Euclidean distance to human settlements, altitude, and aspect variables. The approaches used here are cost-effective for estimating the population density of rare and vulnerable species such as U. thibetanus, and can be used to estimate their population density in Pakistan. Population density estimation can identify areas where the bears live and human–bear conflicts occurred and use this information in future wildlife management plans.