Applications: An Easter Proximity Effect: Modelling and Adjustment

Abstract

The timing of Easter Sunday varies from one year to the next and can affect time series data. To reveal the underlying movement of a time series, the date of Easter's occurrence and its impact on the time series have to be taken into account. New approaches are developed to model and remove the impact of Easter. The monthly Australian Total Retail Turnover series is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the modelling approaches.

Holt-Winters Forecasting Method That Takes into Account the Effect of Eid

“…Monsell [6] suggests several alternative approaches to modify Easter holiday effects. These approaches include adaptation of Easter regressor (see Zhang et al [10]), and the models that split the Easter model into separate weekday and weekend effects.…”