Application of Time Series Analysis to Supplier Selection Problem: A Problem of Multi-Objective Decision Making

Abstract

In today’s competitive environment, markets have made the purchasing function an ever more necessary action in supply chain management while in the same manner the survival of a business, for the most part, depends largely on its supplier’s. An effective and efficient supplier can give a competitive edge to a business. In general, the supplier selection is a multi-objective decision-making problem that involves several quantitative and qualitative factors that helps in minimizing the net ordering cost, minimizing the transportation cost, and minimizing the late deliveries. If we look at the different circumstances of life, we cannot predict anything in advanced. Therefore, we have taken the case of ambiguity in input parameters. Interval type-2 trapezoidal fuzzy numbers have been used to present the ambiguity in the input parameters, and crisp equivalent form has been obtained by taking the expected value. We also have used exponential smoothing forecasting analysis for getting the specific demand for the product to avoid the losses of shortages. Finally, we have used an efficient fuzzy goal programming approach for obtaining the compromise solution. A numerical example has been given to illustrate the concepts of the proposed methodology.