Application of the SWAT model to assess climate and land use/cover change impacts on water balance components of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan

Abstract

Hydrological models play a key role to simulate and assess climate and land use/cover (LULC) change impacts on hydrology in a watershed. In this study, the impact of climate and LULC change was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The simulated and observed streamflow showed a good agreement. Both Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were found to be greater than 0.7 during the calibration (1985–2002) and validation (2003–2012) period. The water balance components were simulated with inputs from downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) data (i.e., future scenario (2030–2100) relative to a baseline period (1974–2004)) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and hypothetical generated LULC change scenarios. All GCMs projected an increase in temperature over the Kabul River Basin (KRB), whereas there was a lack of agreement on projected precipitation among GCMs under both emission and future scenarios. Water yield (WYLD) and evapotranspiration (ET) were projected to decrease in the 21st century. Average annual WYLD was projected to increase under the agriculture-dominant scenario, whereas it decreased under forest and grassland-dominant scenarios. These results are valuable for relevant agencies and stakeholders to adopt measures to counter the negative impacts of climate and LULC change on water resources.

Assessment of the effects of climate change on water balance components in the upper Erer subbasin, Ethiopia

“…In general, precipitation will rise for whole stations from July to August expect at Gursum station. In The future precipitation will rise for rainy season of June, July and August at higher rate than the rest of months [ 83 ] in Dire Dawa and Girawa stations.

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“…Temperature increase is higher for RCP-8.5 than RCP-4.5 that indicates there is a high greenhouse gases concentration is expected for RCP-8.5, having a more global temperature increase. The output shows that regional environment is warmer than the current duration for RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 scenarios [ 83 ]. Maximum predicted average temperature change will happen for January (2.02 °C), July (4.97 °C), July (6.25 °C), July (2.32 °C) and July (4.47 °C) for Dire Dawa, Girawa, Gursum, Haramaya and Harar stations, respectively for RCP-4.5 scenarios.…”

“…The monthly average flow fluctuates significantly throughout the year [ 42 ]. Hence, the predicted change in climate will decrease most of the water balance in the subbasin [ 83 ].…”

Assessing impact of climate change on streamflow: A case study in Ba River watershed, Gia Lai province, Vietnam

“…Hydrological modeling approaches, particularly the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), have been used to tackle these shortcomings and to consider the impact of climate change on water discharge. Some research mentioned the wide application of the SWAT model for assessing the changes in water discharge under climate change conditions on a large watershed scale, such as Saade et al [9], Li and Fang [10], and Ougahi et al [11]. As mentioned in the climate change scenarios, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Vietnam published and updated these scenarios in the past (2009,2012,2016) and most recently in 2020.…”

Climate change in the Upper Paraguay Basin and hydrological impacts on the Pantanal

“…Simulations of system change through hydrological modeling have been widely used to support the decision-making and management of water resources in river basins worldwide (Ougahi et al 2022). Hydrological modeling can be defined as an indispensable tool in the research, planning, and management of water resources, in addition to assessing the seasonal availability of water, thus helping in decision-making (Abdulkareem et al 2018).…”