Application of the Stochastic Markov Model in Predicting the Volume of Oil Spill in Nigeria: A Case of the Niger-Delta Region

Abstract

Oil spillage in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria and its associated hazard is on the increase and there is urgent need to combat its increasing volume by predicting the volume in the future thus, the objective of this study is on the prediction of the volume of oil spill in Nigeria via the Stochastic Markov Model. Two States Markov analysis were employed and it was discovered that the volume of oil spill incident were mostly maintained in a high state than in a low state and the predicted values were approximately steady at a probability value of 0.519 which is in favour of the high state. The study concluded that for the Nigerian Federal government to combat the volume of oil spill, she should in addition to enforcing the laws governing the volume of oil spill incident, employ remediation process that would help clean up the mess caused the spillage

Oil Spills in the Niger Delta Region, Nigeria: Environmental Fate of Toxic Volatile Organics.

“…The spill of oil and accompanying environmental degradation is still on the rise in the Niger Delta Okoyen et al, 2020). The key conundrum for the Nigerian government is how to arrest the problem, with the burning question of how can they carry out remediation of the polluted environment without rst modelling or accurately predicting the volume of oil that have been spilled into the environment over the decades (Mba et al, 2019). At the moment, completely avoiding the spill of crude oil into the environment during operations seems implausible, however, the issue in the Niger Delta is with the regularity and volume of the occurrence of spill incidences and the poor control and response time.…”

Where will the next oil spill incident in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria occur?

“…Oil spills occur almost daily in the Niger Delta, especially in those areas that have one or more types of oil exploration and exploitation infrastructure (Mba et al 2019, Ugwu et al 2021. These spills when they occur are followed by dire consequences for the natural environment and the people who depend on the products of the environment for their survival and maintenance (Mba et al 2019, Akpokodje 2020, Ugwu et al 2021.…”

“…Oil spills occur almost daily in the Niger Delta, especially in those areas that have one or more types of oil exploration and exploitation infrastructure (Mba et al 2019, Ugwu et al 2021. These spills when they occur are followed by dire consequences for the natural environment and the people who depend on the products of the environment for their survival and maintenance (Mba et al 2019, Akpokodje 2020, Ugwu et al 2021. These spills result from varying sources and activities with frequently reported cases of severe environmental degradation and negative socio-economic consequences for people who depend on the products of the environment for sustenance (Nwilo Badejo 2006, Aroh et al 2010, Ite et al 2013, Ansah et al 2022.…”

“…Equipment failure accounts for a further 7% of oil spills recorded in Nigeria (Akinwumiju et al 2020). An increasingly alarming quantity of spills in the Niger Delta is being attributed to activities of kpofire merchants (artisanal and illegal refineries), with significant losses of crude oil to the environment (Badejo and Nwilo 2004, Naanen and Tolani 2014, Yeeles and Akporiaye 2016, Mba et al 2019, Akinwumiju et al 2020, Ugwu et al 2021.…”

“…The spatial and temporal analysis of oil spill events is an important approach to addressing some of the most critical challenges presented by consistent oil spills in the Niger Delta (Whanda et al 2016). Data from various studies indicate that human error accounts for about 80% of the major oil spills in the world (Mehanna et al 2013, Alpers et al 2017, Mba et al 2019.…”