Application of the Natl Index for Long-Term Forecasting of Freeze-Up Appearance Date at the Kyiv Reservoir

Khrystiuk, Borys; Gorbachova, Liudmyla

doi:10.3997/2214-4609.2022580071

Cited by 5 publications

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“…Reliable and early forecasts of the appearance timing of ice phenomena and freeze-up at the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs are very necessary for the rational use of water resources of the Dnipro River, for establishing the operating regimes of reservoirs taking into account the requirements and interests of various sectors of the economy: hydropower, shipping, fisheries, utilities, etc. (Kaganer, 1976;Scherbak et al 2007; Khrystiuk and Gorbachova, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In recent decades, methods of satellite sensing, teleconnection indices and patterns, and methods of machine learning are intensively developed and used (Massie et al, 2002;Lindenschmidt et al, 2010;Sutyrina, 2017;Vyshnevskyi and Shevchuk, 2020;Graf et al, 2022). In papers (Shimaraev, 2007;Sizova et al, 2013;Sutyrina, 2017;Khrystiuk and Gorbachova, 2022) the teleconnection indices were used for the long-term forecasting of the water bodies ice regime and acceptable results were obtained. In the world, the use of the teleconnection indices and patterns is a well-known methodological approach in the hydroclimatic forecasting, which allows forecasting weeks to months in advance (van den Dool, 2007;Chen and Georgakakos, 2014;Chen and Lee, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Teleconnection indices and patterns are becoming increasingly popular in the hydrological research. So, the teleconnection indicators are used to forecast and analyze the flow of rivers (Peters et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2020), precipitation (He and Guan, 2013;Mekanik et al, 2015), water equivalent of snow cover on the river catchments (Sobolowski and Frei, 2007), droughts (Chiew et al, 1998;Chen and Lee, 2017), ice phenomena (Shimaraev, 2007;Sizova et al, 2013;Sutyrina, 2017;Khrystiuk and Gorbachova, 2022). The main objective of this research is to develop the longterm forecasting methods of the appearance dates of ice phenomena and freeze-up at the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs using the teleconnection indicators.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Long-term forecasting of appearance dates of ice phenomena and freeze-up at the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs by teleconnection indicators

Khrystiuk¹,

Gorbachova²

2023

AHS

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Long-term forecasting of the ice regime of water bodies is a difficult task and is still unresolved in the part of improving the accuracy of forecasts. The objective of this paper is the development of the long-term forecasting methods of appearance dates of ice phenomena and freeze-up at the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs by teleconnection indicators. The research was carried out based on the observation data of 38 water gauges, which are located on 6 reservoirs of the Dnipro Cascade. The appearance dates of ice phenomena and freeze-up for the period from the observation beginning at each water gauges to 2020, inclusive, were used. In addition, in the research were also used the information about the teleconnection indicators, namely 34 atmospheric indices, sea surface temperature indices, teleconnection indices and patterns, that are determined by the National Weather Service (NWS) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of United States of America (NOAA USA). The long-term forecasting methods of the appearance dates of ice phenomena and freeze-up at the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs were developed by searching for the best correlation or regression relationship between dates and teleconnection indicators. The probabilities of acceptable error of the developed methods are in the range of 61-72%, which corresponds to the category of "satisfactory" assessment of the method quality. It makes it possible to recommend them for use in operational forecasting.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Long-term forecasting of appearance dates of ice phenomena and freeze-up at the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs by teleconnection indicators

Khrystiuk¹,

Gorbachova²

2023

AHS

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“…Перше найбільш повне ґрунтовне узагальнення матеріалів спостережень за характеристиками льодового режиму річок України було виконано у 60-70-х роках ХХ століття. У подальшому такі дослідження виконувались для окремих річкових басейнів та за різні періоди спостережень [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22].…”

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Spatial-temporal tendencies of the ice regime of the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs

Khrystiuk,

Gorbachova

2023

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Formulation of the problem. Knowledge about the formation, destruction and trends of the ice regime of rivers and reservoirs is very important for hydropower, shipping, fisheries, etc. There are almost no studies that evaluated the trends, homogeneity and stationarity of the ice regime of the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs. At the same time, such research is relevant especially in the conditions of a changing climate. The objective of this paper is evaluation of spatio-temporal trends of a observation series for the ice regime of the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs based on a complex approach using statistical and graphical methods. Methods. The research used statistical methods, namely the Pearson method for establishing of the trend equation in the time series and the correlation coefficient between variables, and the Mann-Kendell statistical non-parametric test for assessing the statistical significance of the trend. Among the graphic methods, the mass curve and residual mass curve were used to assess the homogeneity and stationarity of observation series, respectively, as well as combined chronological graphs for spatial analysis, determination of synchronous and in-phase (or on the contrary) long-term cyclic fluctuations of the ice regime characteristics at various water gauges. The research was carried out based on the observation data for dates of ice appearance, ice freeze-up, ice break-up (i.e., melt onset), ice disappearance for 35 water gauges. Results. According to the Mann-Kendall statistical test, contradictory results were obtained regarding the stationarity of the observation series of the ice regime of the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs. At the same time, according to graphic analysis, such series turned out to be quasi-homogeneous and quasi-stationary, since they have unfinished phases of increase and decrease of long-term cyclical fluctuations. In turn, the cyclic fluctuations are characterized by synchronous and in-phase, which indicates the same temporal and spatial tendencies of the ice regime of six reservoirs. The dates of the appearance of main phases of the ice regime of the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs are characterized by significant variability. Scientific novelty and practical significance. For the first time, modern knowledge about the ice regime characteristics of the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs were obtained based on the simultaneous application of statistical and graphical methods. In addition, the research results can be used for further research, namely any statistical processing (determination of probabilistic characteristics, search for prognostic dependencies, generalizations, etc.).

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Heat Flow Coefficients at the Long-Term Forecasting of the Ice Phenomena Appearance Dates at the Dnipro Cascade Reservoirs

Rozlach,

Khrystiuk

2023

MHE

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Reliable and efficient water management is impossible without information on the current and future condition of river basins. Timely informing stakeholders about the future development of hydrological processes is based on a system of hydrological forecasts. Long-term forecasts of ice phenomena are of great importance, as they are used to plan the end of navigation and the crossing of economic facilities to winter regime. Reliable and lead-time forecasts of appearance dates of ice phenomena and freeze-up on reservoirs are essential for the rational use of water resources and for establishing reservoir operation regimes that take into account the requirements and interests of various economic sectors: hydropower, shipping, fisheries, utilities, etc. The appearance dates of floating ice are one of the most important characteristics of autumn ice phenomena. In recent years, the frequency of warm seasons in autumn and pre-winter has increased, and the process of ice formation is often protracted. In such conditions, it is of great importance to forecast the appearance dates of stable ice and the dates of freeze-up, as these characteristics determine the most effective hydrological strategy in the autumn-winter period. The paper investigates the relationship between heat flow coefficients and the appearance dates of ice phenomena in the reservoirs of the Dnipro cascade. The received forecasting dependencies revealed very weak and moderate correlations, and the efficiency of the forecasting equations was 60 % or less. Thus, the use of heat flow coefficients as predictors of atmospheric processes is very limited. That is why the search for predictors of atmospheric processes should be expanded for long-term forecasting of the appearance dates of ice phenomena in space and time.

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Application of the Natl Index for Long-Term Forecasting of Freeze-Up Appearance Date at the Kyiv Reservoir

Cited by 5 publications

References 0 publications

Long-term forecasting of appearance dates of ice phenomena and freeze-up at the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs by teleconnection indicators

Long-term forecasting of appearance dates of ice phenomena and freeze-up at the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs by teleconnection indicators

Spatial-temporal tendencies of the ice regime of the Dnipro Cascade reservoirs

Heat Flow Coefficients at the Long-Term Forecasting of the Ice Phenomena Appearance Dates at the Dnipro Cascade Reservoirs

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