Application of Reliability Analysis for Risk Ranking in a Levee Reconstruction Project

Kovačević, Meho Saša; Librić, Lovorka; Ivoš, Gordana; Cerić, Anita

doi:10.3390/su12041404

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a levee construction or reconstruction project, many kinds of source of risk could be involved. Kovačević et al (2020) [15] identified five key risks in a levee reconstruction project including (1) inadequate site investigation; (2) overtopping; (3) insufficiently detailed reconstruction design; (4) unsatisfactory performance of reconstruction works; (5) inaccurate monitoring and condition evaluation. Among these risks, this study focused on the risk of overtopping which occurs when water level exceeds the levee crest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Levee Overtopping Risk Assessment under Climate Change Scenario in Kao-Ping River, Taiwan

Wei

Cheng

et al. 2020

Sustainability

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With the growing concern about the failure risk of river embankments in a rapidly changing climate, this study aims to quantify the overtopping probability of river embankment in Kao-Ping River basin in southern Taiwan. A water level simulation model is calibrated and validated with historical typhoon events and the calibrated model is further used to assess overtopping risk in the future under a climate change scenario. A dynamic downscaled projection dataset, provided by Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) has been further downscaled to 5-km grids and bias-corrected with a quantile mapping method, is used to simulate the water level of Kao-Ping River in the future. Our results highlighted that the overtopping risk of Kao-Ping River increased by a factor of 5.7~8.0 by the end of the 21st century.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Levee Overtopping Risk Assessment under Climate Change Scenario in Kao-Ping River, Taiwan

Wei

Cheng

et al. 2020

Sustainability

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“…ANP replaces hierarchical structures with networks [158] by computing the independence between complex decision elements and offers all the benefits of AHP, including simplicity, flexibility, and the opportunity to review consistency in judgments [159]. Interaction is enabled between members of the same cluster (inner dependence) and elements of separate clusters (external dependence) [160]. With the interconnectedness of network elements, complex real-world situations can be modelled accurately [160].…”

Section: Analytical Network Process (Anp)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Interaction is enabled between members of the same cluster (inner dependence) and elements of separate clusters (external dependence) [160]. With the interconnectedness of network elements, complex real-world situations can be modelled accurately [160]. However, the hierarchical analysis assumes that higher levels are independent of lower levels, and in many decision-making processes, decision variables cannot be modelled hierarchically and independently unless combined hence the introduction of ANP [161].…”

Section: Analytical Network Process (Anp)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Know to Predict, Forecast to Warn: A Review of Flood Risk Prediction Tools

Antwi-Agyakwa

Afenyo

Angnuureng

2023

Water

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Flood prediction has advanced significantly in terms of technique and capacity to achieve policymakers’ objectives of accurate forecast and identification of flood-prone and impacted areas. Flood prediction tools are critical for flood hazard and risk management. However, numerous reviews on flood modelling have focused on individual models. This study presents a state-of-the-art review of flood prediction tools with a focus on analyzing the chronological growth of the research in the field of flood prediction, the evolutionary trends in flood prediction, analysing the strengths and weaknesses of each tool, and finally identifying the significant gaps for future studies. The article conducted a review and meta-analysis of 1101 research articles indexed by the Scopus database in the last five years (2017–2022) using Biblioshiny in r. The study drew an up-to-date picture of the recent developments, emerging topical trends, and gaps for future studies. The finding shows that machine learning models are widely used in flood prediction, while Probabilistic models like Copula and Bayesian Network (B.N.) play significant roles in the uncertainty assessment of flood risk, and should be explored since these events are uncertain. It was also found that the advancement of the remote sensing, geographic information system (GIS) and cloud computing provides the best platform to integrate data and tools for flood prediction. However, more research should be conducted in Africa, South Africa and Australia, where less work is done and the potential of the probabilistic models in flood prediction should be explored.

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“…Fedorova et al [93] revealed that the social dimension of sustainability improves the management of conflicts related to the use of resources and social risks across the supply chain. Kovačević et al [94] calculated the reliability of risks ranking in levees for controlling floods in a non-PPP Croatian case study to prioritize the investment.…”

Section: Risk Management and Risk Allocationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Allocation in Unsolicited and Solicited Road Public-Private Partnerships: Sustainability and Management Implications

et al. 2020

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Risk allocation plays a crucial role in the successful development of public-private partnership (PPP) projects. However, despite being an important topic for scholars and practitioners, the existing literature does not provide sufficient evidence on how managing risks in solicited (SP) and unsolicited (USP) road PPP projects, and subsequently, on what the sustainability implications are for such managerial processes. This study aims to extend risk allocation studies by analyzing contracts in Chilean highway PPPs over the last decade based on a systematic content analysis framework and case study data. The framework was developed through line-by-line coding of contract provisions associated with risk-related issues, and data were collected from semi-structured interviews with Chilean PPP practitioners. Results show that, although the majority of risks are either shared or transferred to the private party in most contracts, there are important variations in the way allocation procedures are implemented for SPs and USPs. Contracts analyzed revealed that risk arrangement mechanisms have usually focused on the economic dimension of sustainability without fully incorporating social and environmental considerations, increasing protests in the long-term. Conclusions indicate that risk allocation procedures and sustainability considerations are highly dependent on project-specific features and contextual factors. Overall, the analysis uncovers that the level of autonomy given to the private sector in both SPs and USPs has contributed to properly manage technical and economic risks, but has failed to successfully allocate social and environmental concerns.

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Application of Reliability Analysis for Risk Ranking in a Levee Reconstruction Project

Cited by 5 publications

References 51 publications

Levee Overtopping Risk Assessment under Climate Change Scenario in Kao-Ping River, Taiwan

Levee Overtopping Risk Assessment under Climate Change Scenario in Kao-Ping River, Taiwan

Know to Predict, Forecast to Warn: A Review of Flood Risk Prediction Tools

Risk Allocation in Unsolicited and Solicited Road Public-Private Partnerships: Sustainability and Management Implications

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