Application of Neodeterministic Analysis for North Macedonia

Abstract

In this paper, a scenario-based neodeterministic approach for seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA) giving a realistic description of the seismic ground motion due to an earthquake of a given distance and magnitude is applied to the territory of North Macedonia and the hazard maps are obtained. A comprehensive understanding of both the seismic source process and the propagation of seismic waves is a prerequisite in the process of the application of NDSA on a specific region. The procedure is based on the integration of the existing geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical databases relevant to the selected region. In the definition of scenario earthquakes, the available seismic data, as well as information for the geological active faults in North Macedonia are used. This multi scenario-based analysis simultaneously incorporates the known databases and with use of advanced physical modeling techniques provides the required ground motion data set.The results are based on the computation of realistic synthetic seismogram. A reliable hazard map at regional scale, for the complete territory of North Macedonia are shown.As a final result, Maximum Credible Seismic Input -MCSI is computed for various locations in North Macedonia and valuable response specrta for the selected locations are obtained. These data (spectra and time histories) are set to be used as seismic input for the nonlinear analysis of the existing structures in North Macedonia in the process of seismic risk analysis on a regional scale.