Application of Imprecise Decision Modeling for Regional Development Policies in Indonesia

Abstract

Regional Development encompasses many aspect of economic, social, and environmental attributes. In the context of developing country, the decision to fulfill these attributes are often hindered by lack of clear development scenarios and constraints. This study is an attempt to capture the complexity of decision makers for regional development scenarios using imprecise decision modeling (IDM) by incorporating imprecise information and uncertainties. A series of social, economic and environmental criteria based on agreement from multi stakeholders dialogues were developed along with four policy development scenarios, and 13 indicators of economics, social and environment aspects were assessed. Data were analyzed using expected value theory and selection of the best policy senario was analyzed by means of delta method. Results from such a modeling provides variety of decision alternatives based on probabilities and risk assessment associated with achieving policy objectives.