“…For this purpose, we use two (semi)-metrics between the mortality rate time series and apply hierarchical clustering [47] , [48] to these measures. Hierarchical clustering has been used in several epidemiological applications, including inflammatory diseases [49] , airborne diseases [50] , Alzheimer’s disease [51] , Ebola [52] , SARS [53] , and COVID-19 [41] .…”
This paper introduces new methods to study the changing dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths among the 50 worst-affected countries throughout 2020. First, we analyse the trajectories and turning points of rolling mortality rates to understand at which times the disease was most lethal. We demonstrate five characteristic classes of mortality rate trajectories and determine structural similarity in mortality trends over time. Next, we introduce a class of
virulence matrices
to study the evolution of COVID-19 cases and deaths on a global scale. Finally, we introduce
three-way inconsistency analysis
to determine anomalous countries with respect to three attributes: countries’ COVID-19 cases, deaths and human development indices. We demonstrate the most anomalous countries across these three measures are Pakistan, the United States and the United Arab Emirates.
“…For this purpose, we use two (semi)-metrics between the mortality rate time series and apply hierarchical clustering [47] , [48] to these measures. Hierarchical clustering has been used in several epidemiological applications, including inflammatory diseases [49] , airborne diseases [50] , Alzheimer’s disease [51] , Ebola [52] , SARS [53] , and COVID-19 [41] .…”
This paper introduces new methods to study the changing dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths among the 50 worst-affected countries throughout 2020. First, we analyse the trajectories and turning points of rolling mortality rates to understand at which times the disease was most lethal. We demonstrate five characteristic classes of mortality rate trajectories and determine structural similarity in mortality trends over time. Next, we introduce a class of
virulence matrices
to study the evolution of COVID-19 cases and deaths on a global scale. Finally, we introduce
three-way inconsistency analysis
to determine anomalous countries with respect to three attributes: countries’ COVID-19 cases, deaths and human development indices. We demonstrate the most anomalous countries across these three measures are Pakistan, the United States and the United Arab Emirates.
“…For this purpose, we use two (semi)-metrics between the mortality rate time series and apply hierarchical clustering [32,33] to these measures. Hierarchical clustering has been used in several epidemiological applications, including inflammatory diseases [34], airborne diseases [35], Alzheimer's disease [36], Ebola [37], SARS [38], and COVID-19 [21].…”
This paper introduces new methods to study the changing dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths among the 50 worst-affected countries throughout 2020. First, we analyse the trajectories and turning points of rolling mortality rates to understand at which times the disease was most lethal. We demonstrate five characteristic classes of mortality rate trajectories and determine structural similarity in mortality trends over time. Next, we introduce a class of virulence matrices to study the evolution of COVID-19 cases and deaths on a global scale. Finally, we introduce three-way inconsistency analysis to determine anomalous countries with respect to three attributes: countries' COVID-19 cases, deaths and human development indices. We demonstrate the most anomalous countries across these three measures are Pakistan, the United States and the United Arab Emirates.
“…We implement two methods of clustering time series, which have been previously used in various financial [55] , [56] , [57] and epidemiological applications, including inflammatory diseases [58] , airborne diseases [59] , Alzheimer’s disease [60] , Ebola [61] , SARS [62] , and COVID-19 [54] . The two methods we use are hierarchical clustering [63] , [64] and the optimal one-dimensional implementation of K-means, Ckmeans.1d.dp [65] .…”
This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the populations and equity markets of 92 countries. We compare country-by-country equity market dynamics to cumulative COVID-19 case and death counts and new case trajectories. First, we examine the multivariate time series of cumulative cases and deaths, particularly regarding their changing structure over time. We reveal similarities between the case and death time series, and key dates that the structure of the time series changed. Next, we classify new case time series, demonstrate five characteristic classes of trajectories, and quantify discrepancy between them with respect to the behavior of waves of the disease. Finally, we show there is no relationship between countries’ equity market performance and their success in managing COVID-19. Each country’s equity index has been unresponsive to the domestic or global state of the pandemic. Instead, these indices have been highly uniform, with most movement in March.
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