Application of Fuzzy Set Theory to Economics

“…Le domaine de la science actuarielle a rejoint tardivement les domaines d'application de la méthodologie des ensembles flous (Derrig et Ostaszewski, 1999). Introduite par Zadeh en 1965, la théorie des ensembles flous a vite suscité un grand intérêt auprès des chercheurs, on notait déjà en 1980 plus de 2500 articles scientifiques publiés dans ce domaine (Chen et al, 1980). La première application de la méthodologie des ensembles flous à la science actuarielle est de Dewit (1982) qui montre que le processus de formulation du contrat d'assurance, c'est-à-dire le processus de sélection et d'évaluation des risques à assurer, est lourdement affecté d'incertitude que la probabilité peut ne pas pouvoir décrire de façon satisfaisante.…”

Section: Revue De Littératureunclassified

Théorie des ensembles flous : une application à l’assurance indicielle au Burkina Faso

Tiemtore¹

2019

agr

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L’assurance indicielle, considérée dès son introduction dans les pays en développement comme un puissant outil de stabilisation des revenus des paysans et de réduction de la pauvreté, a très vite désenchanté ses promoteurs. L’évolution de la demande de cette assurance est particulièrement décevante dans la majeure partie des pays qui l’ont expérimenté. Au Burkina Faso, on constate une forte baisse des adhésions et partant des superficies et des sommes assurées. La principale raison évoquée par les producteurs est l’absence d’indemnisations ou le très faible niveau d’indemnisation en cas de perte de production (risque de base). La présente étude propose l’utilisation des techniques de classification floue qui autorise l’appartenance partielle à des classes à indemniser pour réduire le risque de base et augmenter l’attractivité de l’assurance indicielle au sein des producteurs de coton au Burkina Faso. Nous avons montré que l’application de la technique de classification floue augmente significativement la probabilité d’être indemnisé (de plus de trois fois par rapport à son niveau actuel) mais aussi la prime de l’assurance. Toutefois selon Elabed et Carter (2014a), les producteurs seraient prêts à payer des sommes substantielles pour atténuer ou éliminer totalement le risque de base.

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“…Instead of imposing precisely defined criteria to objects' classes, the boundary is not as clear as in the conventional crisp set theory. Fuzzy set theory is therefore suitable for solving problems in which the description of activities and observations is imprecise, vague, and uncertain (Chen, 1998). According to Dubois and Prade (1980), a fuzzy MADM problem consists of the:fuzzy rating phase in which the fuzzy utility of each alternative is obtained; andfuzzy ranking phase in which the fuzzy utilities are compared.A NFDSS was developed to rank all elements on the basis of agreed‐upon criteria so as to facilitate the analysis of complicated MADM problems (Chen, 1998).…”

Section: Non‐structural Fuzzy Decision Support Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fuzzy set theory is therefore suitable for solving problems in which the description of activities and observations is imprecise, vague, and uncertain (Chen, 1998). According to Dubois and Prade (1980), a fuzzy MADM problem consists of the:fuzzy rating phase in which the fuzzy utility of each alternative is obtained; andfuzzy ranking phase in which the fuzzy utilities are compared.A NFDSS was developed to rank all elements on the basis of agreed‐upon criteria so as to facilitate the analysis of complicated MADM problems (Chen, 1998). By incorporating the relative fuzzy set theory, NFDSS allows the use of linguistic variables, such as “the same”, “marginally different”, “significantly different”, etc.…”

Section: Non‐structural Fuzzy Decision Support Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Negotiation of on‐site buffer stocks

Fang

Skitmore

2008

Construction Innovation

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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the possibility of applying non‐structural fuzzy decision support theory in modelling the negotiation between various participants with conflicting objectives so as to establish the optimum buffer stocks for a construction project.Design/methodology/approachIn view of the divergence in objectives between various decision makers when determining the amount of materials to be delivered to site, the concept of integrating the non‐structural fuzzy decision support system (NFDSS) to multi‐attribute decision making is reviewed. With the help of a case study example, the process involved in the NFDSS and the methodology of evaluation are illustrated. Finally, the paper proposes the use of the Nash criterion to measure the utility of various decision makers so as to identify an equilibrium solution on the quantity of materials to be supplied.FindingsThe results indicate that the requisite number of on‐site stocks can be determined by referring to the utility of the parties involved in decision making.Research limitations/implicationsThe NFDSS systematically evaluates each scenario under different affected factors such as cost, schedule, quality, safety, etc. Finally, a scenario utility is computed to establish the preference of each party.Originality/valueThe paper is of value in showing how NFDSS can systematically analyse human judgements to generate relative weightings for the decision factors and elements. The NFDSS model can be applied to real‐world cases to determine the frequency of delivery and the amount of buffer stocks that would meet the interest of various project participants.

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Application of Fuzzy Set Theory to Economics

Cited by 25 publications

References 4 publications

Finding a Link between Randomness and Fuzziness

Finding a Link between Randomness and Fuzziness

Théorie des ensembles flous : une application à l’assurance indicielle au Burkina Faso

Negotiation of on‐site buffer stocks

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