Application of Expanded Event Trees combined with uncertainty analysis methodologies

Queral, César; Fernández-Cosials, Kevin; Zugazagoitia, Eneko; París, Carlos; Magán, Javier; Mendizábal, Rafael; Posada, José María

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2020.107246

Cited by 13 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…In the view of redundant system modeling, Probabilistic Graphical Model (PGA) is the primary method to predict system reliability, and it could be built by empirical analysis and structural learning. In terms of empirical research, the reliability of the system is deduced from models with independent assumptions and logical structures such as FTA, 19,20 Event Tree Analysis (ETA), 21,22 and Bow-tie 23,24 model. However, FTA, ETA, and Bow-tie models assume units are independent at different times, and they can't structure the time-lag correlation between units or repeat deducing system reliability when states of unit change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability prediction used dynamic Bayesian networks for redundant system with time‐lag correlation

Liu

Zhou

Jia

et al. 2022

Quality & Reliability Eng

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In the reliability prediction process of a redundant system, active units and standby units are assumed independent generally. Due to the interaction among units, failure of the active unit gives the standby unit a potential interior shock, then the standby unit fails after a period of operation. Therefore, the correlation between the active unit and the standby unit is triggered by the failure of the active unit and also has time‐lag. In this paper, a correlation estimated method with two parameters is proposed based on cross‐correlation analysis, where the two parameters are time‐lag interval and time‐lag correlation coefficient, the discriminant conditions of independent, simultaneous correlation and time‐lag correlation are given. Subsequently, the Conditional Probability Table (CPT) of Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is updated by adding time‐lag intervals and time‐lag correlation coefficients. Then, DBN is optimized into Time‐lag Dynamic Bayesian Network (TDBN). Meanwhile, the modeling process and calculated method of TDBN are given. To reduce the complexity of TDBN, the maximum time‐lag correlation coefficient and the time‐lag interval corresponding are regarded as the main parameters to estimate time‐lag correlation. Finally, through the simulation analysis and the case of Chinese train control system (CTCS‐3), it could be seen that the reliability prediction of TDBN is more accurate than DBN, TDBN improves the reliability prediction accuracy of train and driver interface module to 0.8135 either.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability prediction used dynamic Bayesian networks for redundant system with time‐lag correlation

Liu

Zhou

Jia

et al. 2022

Quality & Reliability Eng

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…There are sev eral rea sons for this. The two main ones are that the re serves of qual ity fos sil fu els are de creasing and that the use of fos sil fu els sig nif i cantly con tributes to the con tam i na tion of the en vi ron ment [1,2]. The so-called green (al ter na tive) en ergy sources are prob lem atic be cause they pro duce elec tric ity at a much higher price, and they are not com pletely without im pact on the en vi ron ment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The efficiency of gas-filled surge arresters in the environment contaminated by non-ionizing radiation of fusion reactors

et al. 2022

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The research presents an experiment with a model of an electronic generator for energy injection into the plasma of a fusion reactor. By recording a non-ionizing field in the vicinity of a fusion reactor, it was determined that this field has an extremely high growth rate. At the site of the maximum intensity of the field of non-ionizing radiation, commercial surge arresters with a flexible model of surge arresters were used for experimentation. It has been found that the commercial surge arresters have an efficiency of about 20%. For the efficiency of the flexible model, it was found to be slightly less than 40% (and to be achieved by the application of alpha particle radiation). Since neither of these efficiencies guarantee reliable operation of the gas-filled surge arrester, it was concluded that essential electronics in the vicinity of the fusion generator must be protected. However, since this protection can only be implemented in a fusion reactor, the fact remains that the environment of such a reactor is extremely contaminated with non-ionizing radiation. Commercial surge voltages are isolated for testing since the protection of electronic circuits from fast overvoltages is a critical point for the functioning of modern electronics.

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Reconstruction of internal heat source in biological tissue using parallel particle swarm optimization

Ye,

Shi,

et al. 2024

International Journal of Thermal Sciences

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Application of Expanded Event Trees combined with uncertainty analysis methodologies

Cited by 13 publications

References 23 publications

Reliability prediction used dynamic Bayesian networks for redundant system with time‐lag correlation

Reliability prediction used dynamic Bayesian networks for redundant system with time‐lag correlation

The efficiency of gas-filled surge arresters in the environment contaminated by non-ionizing radiation of fusion reactors

Reconstruction of internal heat source in biological tissue using parallel particle swarm optimization

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