Application of Discrete Choice Models for Exploring Traveller’s Behaviour at Egyptian Transport Network

Abstract

Mode choice models generally form a critical part of the analysis of the travel demand of any study area in any country and have played an important role in transport modelling over the last decades. These models provide a detailed representation of the complex aspects of transport demand based on strong theoretical justifications. However, this paper describes the development of a mode choice model for the Egyptian main zones based only on the behaviour of travellers. The necessary data are collected using a special questionnaire prepared by the Egyptian Ministry of Transportation in 2010 and interviewing travellers at basic taxi terminals across Egypt. The mode choice model is derived using the multinomial logit (MNL), the nested logit (NLM), and the multinomial probit (MPM). The modelling execution results show that, for all the studied Egyptian zones, the NLM models give satisfactory and better results than the MNL and MPM models. The trip cost strongly affects the choice of paid conveyance, especially when it comes to work and educational trips. This may be apparent in the majority of developing countries, where the weak economic situation negatively impacts the use of expensive transportation means. However, the overall results of the present study are valuable and confidential, suggesting a reasonable transport policy intended for users in Egypt, the main purpose of which is the use of comfortable vehicles at moderate fares. It is advisable to investigate all aspects of the problem in order to reach an extensive modelling and analysis of mode choice. This will surely help to improve the prevailing transport system in Egypt.