Application of Analytical Modeling in the Design for Reliability of Electronic Packages and Systems

Suhir, Ephraïm

doi:10.1007/978-3-662-55771-6_370

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

References 54 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…It is just an example. Actual numbers should be obtained using FOAT on a simulator and confirmed by an independent method, such as, say, Delphi method: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method [149] Adequate trust: The double exponential probability distribution function (DEPDF) for the random HCF is revisited. It is shown particularly that the entropy of this distribution, when applied to the trustee (a human, a technology, a methodology or a concept), can be viewed as an appropriate quantitative characteristic of the propensity of a decision maker to an under-trust or an over-trust judgment and, as a consequence of that, to the likelihood of making a mistake or an erroneous decision.…”

Section: Swiss Airmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Accordingly, three major areas are distinguished and addressed with an objective to quantify what lends itself to more or less convincing quantification: 1) The aerospace E&P reliability ; 2) The role of the HF in some more or less typical aerospace situations [110][111][112][113][114][115][116][117][118][119][120][121][122][123][124][125][126]; 3) Some HITL related missions and situations, when the instrumentation's reliability and human performance contribute jointly to the outcome of such missions and situations [127][128][129][130][131][132][133][134][135][136][137][138][139][140][141][142][143][144]. The analyses use analytical modeling and applied probability theory [145][146][147][148][149][150]. It is briefly indicated also [151][152][153][154] how some of the developed models could be used to quantify th...…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

"Quantifying the Unquantifiable" in Aerospace Electronics and Ergonomics Engineering: Review

Suhir¹

2020

J Aerosp Eng Mech

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The today's efforts of aerospace system engineers, not to mention human psychologists, to assure adequate operational reliability of electronic-and-photonic (E&P) products and satisfactory success-and-safety of a mission or of an extraordinary situation, are, as a rule, based on more or less trustworthy statistics and on what is known as best practices. These efforts are typically unquantifiable, i.e. do not end up with numerical data that enable comparing different possible scenarios of the outcome of a planned undertaking. The objective of this review is to show, using examples from different and sometimes even unconnected areas of aerospace E&P and ergonomics engineering, how probabilistic predictive modeling (PPM) geared to a carefully designed, thoroughly conducted and adequately interpreted highly-focused and highly cost effective failure-oriented accelerated testing (FOAT) can be employed to quantify what is typically considered as "unquantifiable", i.e., to evaluate the lifetime and the corresponding probability of failure (PoF) of an aerospace E&P system, and/or the role of the human factor (HF), and to predict the outcome of a human-in-the-loop (HITL) related mission or an extraordinary situation, when equipment's reliability (both hard-and software) and human performance contribute jointly to the never-zero PoF of a mission or an extraordinary situation. The reader is not expected to necessarily "connect the dots", associated with different situations and examples provided. The only, but an important, feature that these examples have in common is that many aerospace system and ergonomics engineering related tasks and problems, which are perceived and treated today as unquantifiable, could and, in the author's opinion, should be quantified to assure safe and successful outcome of a particular aerospace undertaking of importance.

show abstract

Section: Swiss Airmentioning

confidence: 99%