Application of adverse and extreme adverse weather: modelling in transmission and distribution system reliability evaluation

Billinton, R.; Singh, Gurmit

doi:10.1049/ip-gtd:20045058

Cited by 138 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Concerning the probability of occurrence of contingencies and corrective control behaviors, we focus on the role of the prevailing weather conditions over the area of interest [11]. To this end, we denote by w 0 the prevailing weather conditions and regard the probability of a contingency c as a function π c (w 0 ) ∈ [0, 1], with c∈C π c (w 0 ) = 1.…”

Section: A Preliminaries and Notationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…• To model the possible influence of prevailing weather conditions on the probability of any contingency event, we start from the fundamental model of [11], linking component forced outage rates to a discretized set of weather conditions. Accordingly, we derive contingency probabilities from such weather related forced outage rates as per [13].…”

Section: B Mathematical Model Used In the Implementationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic Reliability Management Approach and Criteria for power system real-time operation

Karangelos

Wehenkel

2016

2016 Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC)

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Abstract-This paper develops a probabilistic approach for power system reliability management in real-time operation where risk is a product of i) the potential occurrence of contingencies, ii) the possible failure of corrective (i.e., post-contingency) control and, iii) the socio-economic impact of service interruptions to end-users. Stressing the spatiotemporal variability of these factors, we argue for reliability criteria assuring a high enough probability of avoiding service interruptions of severe socio-economic impact by dynamically identifying events of nonnegligible implied risk. We formalise the corresponding decision making problem as a chance-constrained two-stage stochastic programming problem, and study its main features on the single area IEEE RTS-96 system. We also discuss how to leverage this proposal for the construction of a globally coherent reliability management framework for long-term system development, midterm asset management, and short-term operation planning.

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Section: A Preliminaries and Notationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: B Mathematical Model Used In the Implementationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Reliability Management Approach and Criteria for power system real-time operation

Karangelos

Wehenkel

2016

2016 Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC)

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“…The fuzzy set concept has been applied in the power system analysis and planning [14] but very little works have been done in the application of the fuzzy set theory together with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method and mathematical optimization techniques to deal with reliability calculation in transmission power systems. Pioneer work on this topic can be found in [20] and [21].…”

Section: Fuzzy Set Applications In Faulted Power Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo technique for reliability assessment in transmission power systems

Canizes

Soares

Vale

et al. 2012

Energy

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a b s t r a c tThis paper proposes a new methodology to reduce the probability of occurring states that cause load curtailment, while minimizing the involved costs to achieve that reduction. The methodology is supported by a hybrid method based on Fuzzy Set and Monte Carlo Simulation to catch both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters of transmission power system.The novelty of this research work consists in proposing two fundamentals approaches: 1) a global steady approach which deals with building the model of a faulted transmission power system aiming at minimizing the unavailability corresponding to each faulted component in transmission power system. This, results in the minimal global cost investment for the faulted components in a system states sample of the transmission network; 2) a dynamic iterative approach that checks individually the investment's effect on the transmission network.A case study using the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Buses is presented to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.

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“…In [23], a distributed framework for demand response and the user adaptation is explored in the context of smart grids, taking into account the pricing of the congestion. In [24], a three-state weather model is proposed for the reliability assessment. In [25], a technique is presented to reduce the errors in the short-term load forecasting.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Steady-state security in distribution networks with large wind farms

Jayaweera

Islam

2014

J. Mod. Power Syst. Clean Energy

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Aging network assets, forced and unforced outages, and the way the networks are operated in a deregulated market are of significant concerns to integrate large wind farms in a distribution network. In many cases, the constrained network capacity is a potential barrier to the large-scale integration of wind power. This paper probabilistically assesses the steady-state security in a distribution network in the presence of large wind farms. The approach incorporates active distribution network operating conditions, including intermittent power outputs, random outages, demand fluctuations, and dynamic interactions and exchanges, and then assesses the steady state security using Monte Carlo simulation. A case study is performed by integrating large wind farms into a distribution network. The results suggest that intermittent outputs of large wind farms in a distribution network can impact the steady-state security considerably. However, the level of impact of wind farms does not necessarily correlate with the installed capacity of them.

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Application of adverse and extreme adverse weather: modelling in transmission and distribution system reliability evaluation

Cited by 138 publications

References 6 publications

Probabilistic Reliability Management Approach and Criteria for power system real-time operation

Probabilistic Reliability Management Approach and Criteria for power system real-time operation

Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo technique for reliability assessment in transmission power systems

Steady-state security in distribution networks with large wind farms

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