Application of a Susceptible, Infectious, and/or Recovered (SIR) Model to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Ecuador

Quirola-Amores, Paulina; Terán, Enrique

doi:10.3389/fams.2020.571544

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 28 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In other words, the result presented in this investigation would explain a high wave of infection in the country. Therefore, the R o was higher than the one found by [49], who established a value of 2.2 with 88% of susceptible/infected individuals. The R o estimates for COVID-19, including the study R o , were higher than the R o values estimated for epidemics caused by coronaviruses that had high dissemination at the beginning of the century and the previous decade, such as the cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) spread in Beijing, China, at the end of 2002 that affected at least 37 countries, with an estimated R 0 between 2.2 to 4.91, and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) of 2012 had an R 0 between 0.29 and 0.80 in 27 countries [44,[50][51][52].…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 66%

Multivariate Forecasting Model for COVID-19 Spread Based on Possible Scenarios in Ecuador

Guamán,

Portilla,

Arias-Muñoz

et al. 2023

Mathematics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

So far, about 770.1 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been counted by August 2023, and around 7 million deaths have been reported from these cases to the World Health Organization. In Ecuador, the first confirmed COVID-19 case was registered on 19 February 2020, and the country’s mortality rate reached 0.43% with 12986 deaths, suggesting the need to establish a mechanism to show the virus spread in advance. This study aims to build a dynamic model adapted to health and socio-environmental variables as a multivariate model to understand the virus expansion among the population. The model is based on Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR), which is a standard model in which the population is divided into six groups with parameters such as susceptible S(t), transit stage E(t), infected I(t), recovered R(t), deceased Me(t), infected asymptomatic Ia(t), infected symptomatic Is(t) and deceased by other causes M(t) to be considered and adapted. The model was validated by using consistent data from Chile and run by inconsistent data from Ecuador. The forecast error was analyzed based on the mean absolute error between real data and model forecast, showing errors within a range from 6.33% to 8.41% for Chile, with confidence a interval of 6.17%, then 3.87% to 4.70% range for Ecuador with a confidence interval of 2.59% until 23rd December 2020 of the database. The model forecasts exponential variations in biosecurity measures, exposed population, and vaccination.

show abstract

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 66%

Multivariate Forecasting Model for COVID-19 Spread Based on Possible Scenarios in Ecuador

Guamán,

Portilla,

Arias-Muñoz

et al. 2023

Mathematics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, this revealed a lack of adequate communication about the rationale for vaccination and its slow and progressive impact on the pandemic behavior. For example, in the particular case of Ecuador, an early SIR model showed that herd immunity will require vaccination of at least 55% of the population ( 24 ). However, in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, a global survey about optimism over the COVID-19 outbreak coming to an end showed that European and Asian countries had a more negative view of the situation and became even more pessimistic as time passed, compared to countries such as Brazil and Mexico that had a more optimistic view about the situation ( 25 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Perception and Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Against COVID-19 in a Hypertensive Population From a Semi-Urban City of Ecuador

Aumala

Cárdenas

Vergara

et al. 2021

Front. Public Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: In an elderly population with hypertension, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is associated with a higher incidence of mortality and a protracted course of clinical symptoms.Objective: To assess the perceived risk of infection and complications due to COVID-19 in people with hypertension living in a semi-urban city of Ecuador.Methods: A cross-sectional telephone survey of adult outpatients with a previous diagnosis of hypertension in the semi-urban community of Conocoto in Quito, Ecuador was conducted from August to December 2020.Results: A total of 260 adult outpatients, aged 34–97 years, completed telephone surveys. Of total, 71.5% (n = 186) of respondents were women and 28.5% (n = 74) of respondents were men. Overall, 18.1% believe that their risk of infection is “very high,” 55.4% believe that their risk of infection is “high,” 21.5% believe that their risk of infection is “low,” and 5% believe that their risk of infection is “very low.” The perceived risk of complications, if infected by COVID-19, revealed that 21.9% believe that their risk of complication is “very high,” 65.0% believe that their risk of complication is “high,” 10.4% believe that their risk of complication is “low,” and 2.7% believe that their risk of complication is “very low.”Conclusion: Patients with hypertension are aware of the risks posed by COVID-19 infection and its impact on their health. However, the health system must educate the population on health practices and behaviors to avoid COVID-19 infection until the majority of the population of Ecuador can be vaccinated.

show abstract

“…For example, the Lotka-Volterra model was used to study the marine phage population dynamics (e.g., [47]) or the stability of the model with time-varying delays (e.g., [48]) or changes in the density of a population in community ecology resulting from this model (e.g., [49]). There are applications of other models considered in this paper, with the applications of the SIR model to the COVID-19 pandemic being both interesting and relevant (e.g., [50,51]). Additional insights in these studies can be gained by constructing their standard Lagrangians using the method presented in Section 2.3.…”

Section: Applications To Real-world Ecological Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Novel Roles of Standard Lagrangians in Population Dynamics Modeling and Their Ecological Implications

Pham,

Musielak

2023

Mathematics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Lagrangian formalism based on the standard Lagrangians, which are characterized by the presence of the kinetic and potential energy-like terms, is established for selected population dynamics models. A general method that allows for constructing such Lagrangians is developed, and its specific applications are presented and discussed. The obtained results are compared with the previously found Lagrangians, whose forms were different as they did not allow for identifying the energy-like terms. It is shown that the derived standard Lagrangians for the population dynamics models can be used to study the oscillatory behavior of the models and the period of their oscillations, which may have ecological and environmental implications. Moreover, other physical and biological insights that can be gained from the constructed standard Lagrangians are also discussed.

show abstract

Application of a Susceptible, Infectious, and/or Recovered (SIR) Model to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Ecuador

Cited by 8 publications

References 28 publications

Multivariate Forecasting Model for COVID-19 Spread Based on Possible Scenarios in Ecuador

Multivariate Forecasting Model for COVID-19 Spread Based on Possible Scenarios in Ecuador

Risk Perception and Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Against COVID-19 in a Hypertensive Population From a Semi-Urban City of Ecuador

Novel Roles of Standard Lagrangians in Population Dynamics Modeling and Their Ecological Implications

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About