Application of a model to predict cyanobacterial growth patterns in response to climatic change at Farmoor Reservoir, Oxfordshire, UK

Howard, A. D.; Easthope, Mark P.

doi:10.1016/s0048-9697(01)00929-9

Cited by 29 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…However, increases in cloud cover and wind speed as predicted for north-west Europe would weaken thermal gradients and offset the competitive advantage derived by cyanobacteria from their buoyancy regulation. Analysis of surface blooms in Lake IJssel showed that scums are absent at wind speeds >2-3 m s )1 (Ibelings et al 2003) and should become less frequent if the winter is slightly more windy as predicted (Howard and Easthope 2002).…”

Section: Nuisance Speciessupporting

confidence: 52%

The impact of climate change on lakes in the Netherlands: a review

et al. 2005

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Climate change will alter freshwater ecosystems but specific effects will vary among regions and the type of water body. Here, we give an integrative review of the observed and predicted impacts of climate change on shallow lakes in the Netherlands and put these impacts in an international perspective. Most of these lakes are man-made and have preset water levels and poorly developed littoral zones. Relevant climatic factors for these ecosystems are temperature, ice-cover and wind. Secondary factors affected by climate include nutrient loading, residence time and water levels. We reviewed the relevant literature in order to assess the impact of climate change on these lakes. We focussed on six management objectives as bioindicators for the functioning of these ecosystems: target species, nuisance species, invading species, transparency, carrying capacity and biodiversity. We conclude that climate change will likely (i) reduce the numbers of several target species of birds; (ii) favour and stabilize cyanobacterial dominance in phytoplankton communities; (iii) cause more serious incidents of botulism among waterfowl and enhance the spreading of mosquito borne diseases; (iv) benefit invaders originating from the Ponto-Caspian region; (v) stabilize turbid, phytoplankton-dominated systems, thus counteracting restoration measures; (vi) destabilize macrophyte-dominated clear-water lakes; (vii) increase the carrying capacity of primary producers, especially phytoplankton, thus mimicking eutrophication; (viii) affect higher trophic levels as a result of enhanced primary production; (ix) have a negative impact on biodiversity which is linked to the clear water state; (x) affect biodiversity by changing the disturbance regime. Water managers can counteract these developments by reduction of nutrient loading, development of the littoral zone, compartmentalization of lakes and fisheries management

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Section: Nuisance Speciessupporting

confidence: 52%

The impact of climate change on lakes in the Netherlands: a review

et al. 2005

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“…It has to be noted, however, that the anticipated negative effects of climate change on lake transparency are still far from being conclusive, since counteracting effects seem possible, for instance high P loading of inflowing water might (temporarily) be balanced by dilution effects when net precipitation is increased; increased internal loading might be a transient phenomenon; a mismatch between phytoplankton and zooplankton has only been described for deep lakes and is related to stratification patterns, which might not apply to shallow lakes; enhanced growth rates of cyanobacteria may in case of scum forming species be counteracted by disturbing effects of wind and increased cloud cover (Howard & Easthope, 2002); macrophytes positively respond to increasing temperature (Barko & Smart, 1981;Rooney & Kalff, 2000), which could result in a stabilization of the clear water state.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the effect of climate change on temperate shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake

et al. 2007

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Global average surface temperatures are expected to rise by about 1.4-5.8°C from the present until the year 2100. This temperature increase will affect all ecosystems on earth. For shallow lakes-which can be either in a clear water or a turbid state-this climate change will expectedly negatively affect water transparency though the prediction is far from conclusive and experimental investigations elucidating the potential climatic effects on shallow lakes are still rare. The aim of this study was to further shape and sharpens hypotheses on the impact of climate change on shallow lakes by applying an existing and well-calibrated ecosystem model, PCLake. We focused on asymptotic model behaviour for a range of temperature and loading scenarios in a factorial design. We conclude that climate change will likely lead to decreased critical nutrient loadings. Combined with an expected increase in the external nutrient loading, this will increase the probability of a shift from a clear to a turbid state. As the model predicts a higher summer chlorophyll-a concentration, a stronger dominance of cyanobacteria during summer and a reduced zooplankton abundance due to climate change, the turbid state itself is likely to become even more severe.

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“…In polymictic lakes, for example, the frequency and duration of stratified conditions will increase (Wilhelm and Adrian 2008), while the overall duration of summer stratification or the depth of the thermocline will be affected in dimictic lakes (McCormick and Fahnenstiel 1999;Gerten and Adrian 2001). How the forecasted increase in storm events (Christensen et al 2007) may counteract the probability of bloom formation mediated by increasingly stable conditions remains speculative (Howard and Easthope 2002).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Cyanobacteria dominance: Quantifying the effects of climate change

Wagner

Adrian

2009

Limnology & Oceanography

360

248

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An increase in cyanobacteria bloom formation within lakes has been forecasted as a result of global warming. We investigated the particular physical and chemical thresholds for cyanobacteria performance in a lake model system, the polymictic eutrophic Mü ggelsee, which has been affected by significant warming trends and substantial reductions in external nutrient load. To identify key physical and nutrient thresholds favoring cyanobacterial performance, we applied classification tree analysis to water temperature, Schmidt stability, oxygen, pH, nutrients (including phosphorus, nitrogen, and their relative ratios), and zooplankton abundance during periods of summer thermal stratification. Although total phosphorus (TP) concentration was the principal force driving cyanobacteria contribution to total algal mass, climate-induced changes in the thermal regime, rather than direct temperature effects, positively influenced cyanobacteria dominance. Stratification periods exceeding 3 weeks and exhibiting a Schmidt stability of .44 g cm cm 22 favored cyanobacteria proliferation within a critical TP concentration range (70-215 mg L 21 ). The dominating genera Aphanizomenon, Anabaena, and Microcystis achieved the highest biomass in cases in which total nitrogen concentrations exceeded 1.29 mg L 21 , stratified conditions exceeded a duration of 3 weeks, and TP concentrations exceeded 215 mg L 21 , respectively. Given the observed broad range of TP thresholds within which climate warming enhances the probability of cyanobacteria dominance, the incidence of cyanobacteria blooms will certainly increase in many lakes under future climate scenarios.

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Application of a model to predict cyanobacterial growth patterns in response to climatic change at Farmoor Reservoir, Oxfordshire, UK

Cited by 29 publications

References 22 publications

The impact of climate change on lakes in the Netherlands: a review

The impact of climate change on lakes in the Netherlands: a review

Predicting the effect of climate change on temperate shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake

Cyanobacteria dominance: Quantifying the effects of climate change

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