Applicability of Wakeby distribution in flood frequency analysis: a case study for eastern Australia

Rahman, Ataur; Zaman, Mohammad A; Haddad, Khaled; Adlouni, Salaheddine El; Zhang, Chi

doi:10.1002/hyp.10182

Cited by 31 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 37 publications

(66 reference statements)

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“…This also highlights the potential effect of the low outliers in annual maximum series (AMS) observations in distorting the AEP of the larger flood quantile [ Lamontagne et al ., ]. In Eastern Australia, these Potential Influential Low Flows (PILFs) account for 61% of the difference in the flood quantile estimation in 10 study catchments [ Rahman et al , ].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information

Lam

Thompson

Croke

et al. 2017

Water Resources Research

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Using a combination of stream gauge, historical, and paleoflood records to extend extreme flood records has proven to be useful in improving flood frequency analysis (FFA). The approach has typically been applied in localities with long historical records and/or suitable river settings for paleoflood reconstruction from slack‐water deposits (SWDs). However, many regions around the world have neither extensive historical information nor bedrock gorges suitable for SWDs preservation and paleoflood reconstruction. This study from subtropical Australia demonstrates that confined, semialluvial channels such as macrochannels provide relatively stable boundaries over the 1000–2000 year time period and the preserved SWDs enabled paleoflood reconstruction and their incorporation into FFA. FFA for three sites in subtropical Australia with the integration of historical and paleoflood data using Bayesian Inference methods showed a significant reduction in uncertainty associated with the estimated discharge of a flood quantile. Uncertainty associated with estimated discharge for the 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood is reduced by more than 50%. In addition, sensitivity analysis of possible within‐channel boundary changes shows that FFA is not significantly affected by any associated changes in channel capacity. Therefore, a greater range of channel types may be used for reliable paleoflood reconstruction by evaluating the stability of inset alluvial units, thereby increasing the quantity of temporal data available for FFA. The reduction in uncertainty, particularly in the prediction of the ≤1% AEP design flood, will improve flood risk planning and management in regions with limited temporal flood data.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information

Lam

Thompson

Croke

et al. 2017

Water Resources Research

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“…The cdf of Wak can be computed by numerically inverting F WAK −1 [35]. The parameters of Wak were estimated by LM [36] for every month and grid cell.…”

Section: Wakeby Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Midwestern of the United States, the Sahara and Kazakhstan, low GF values were simulated, indicating that the negative influence of gusts on the technical integrity is small. Overall, at 35 …”

Section: Gust Characteristics Around the Worldmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Gust Climate Evaluation and Its Influence on Wind Turbines

et al. 2017

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Strong gusts negatively affect wind turbines in many ways. They (1) harm their structural safety; (2) reduce their wind energy output; and (3) lead to a shorter wind turbine rotor blade fatigue life. Therefore, the goal of this study was to provide a global assessment of the gust climate, considering its influence on wind turbines. The gust characteristics analyzed were: (1) the gust speed return values for 30, 50 and 100 years; (2) the share of gust speed exceedances of cut-out speed; and (3) the gust factor. In order to consider the seasonal variation of gust speed, gust characteristics were evaluated on a monthly basis. The global monthly wind power density was simulated and geographical restrictions were applied to highlight gust characteristics in areas that are generally suitable for wind turbine installation. Gust characteristics were computed based on ERA-interim data on a 1 • × 1 • spatial resolution grid. After comprehensive goodness-of-fit evaluation of 12 theoretical distributions, Wakeby distribution was used to compute gust speed return values. Finally, the gust characteristics were integrated into the newly developed wind turbine gust index. It was found that the Northeastern United States and Southeast Canada, Newfoundland, the southern tip of South America, and Northwestern Europe are most negatively affected by the impacts of gusts. In regions where trade winds dominate, such as eastern Brazil, the Sahara, southern parts of Somalia, and southeastern parts of the Arabian Peninsula, the gust climate is well suitable for wind turbine installation.

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“…The region also experiences periods of extended low flows (droughts). These potentially influential low flows (PILFs), when excluded from flood frequency analysis (FFA), were found to affect ~61% of the flood quantile estimations in selected catchments across eastern Australia (Rahman et al, 2014).…”

Section: Regional Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond the gorge: Palaeoflood reconstruction from slackwater deposits in a range of physiographic settings in subtropical Australia

et al. 2017

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The application of palaeoflood hydrology in Australia has been limited since its initial introduction more than 30 years ago. This study adopts a regional, field-based approach to sampling slackwater deposits in a subtropical setting in southeast Queensland beyond the traditional arid setting. We explore the potential and challenges of using sites outside the traditional physiographical setting of bedrock gorges. Over 30 flood units were identified across different physiographical settings using a range of criteria. Evidence of charcoal-rich layers and palaeosol development assisted in the identification and separation of distinct flood units. The OSL-dated flood units are relatively young with two-thirds of the samples being <1000 years old. The elevation of all flood units have resulted in estimated minimum discharges greater than the 1% annual exceedance probability. Although these are in the same order of gauged flood magnitudes, >80% of them classified as 'extreme event'. This study opens up the renewed possibility of applying palaeoflood hydrology to more populated parts of Australia where the need for improved estimation of flood frequency and magnitude is now urgent in light of several extreme flood events. Preliminary contributions to improve the understanding between high magnitude floods and regional climatic drivers are also discussed. Recognised regional extreme floods generally coincide with La Niña and negative IPO phases, while tropical cyclones appear to be a key weather system in generating such large floods.

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Applicability of Wakeby distribution in flood frequency analysis: a case study for eastern Australia

Cited by 31 publications

References 37 publications

Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information

Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information

Global Gust Climate Evaluation and Its Influence on Wind Turbines

Beyond the gorge: Palaeoflood reconstruction from slackwater deposits in a range of physiographic settings in subtropical Australia

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