Antigovernment Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures Affect Conflictual Behavior

Abstract

In this article, we combine a game-theoretic treatment of public goods provision in networks with a statistical network analysis to show that fragmented opposition network structures lead to an increase in conflictual actions. Current literature concentrates on the dyadic relationship between the government and potential challengers. We shift the focus toward exploring how network structures affect the strategic behavior of political actors. We derive and examine testable hypotheses and use latent space analysis to infer actors' positions vis-à-vis each other in the network. Network structure is examined and used to test our hypotheses with data on conflicts in Thailand from 2001 to 2010. We show the influential role of network structure in generating conflictual behavior.

A network approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars

“…The logic of enduring fighting: A theoretical Model of 1 Increasing awareness to these interdependencies have been addressed not only by network approaches (e.g. Metternich et al, 2013;König et al, 2017;Gade, Hafez and Gabbay, 2019), but also random effect models (see Cunningham and Sawyer, 2017) 2 Note that because coefficients will be biased, clustering standard errors will not solve this problem, i.e., incorrect inference will prevail. See also Poast (2010).…”

“…Despite this growing literature on multi-actor conflicts, there is less consensus on how to theoretically and empirically model strategic relations between multiple actors, and especially how to draw empirical inferences in the context of interdependent actors. Recent network approaches are most explicit and address interdependencies between armed actors head-on (Metternich et al, 2013;König et al, 2017;Gade, Hafez and Gabbay, 2019). We seek to built upon this work by providing a theoretical and empirical model of how multi-actor conflicts induce strategic behavior, focusing on the fighting durations of armed actors.…”

The Impact of Economic Crises on Political Representation in Public Communication: Evidence from the Eurozone

“…34 Grimmer 2013;Grimmer, Westwood, and Messing 2015;Sagarzazu and Klüver 2017. 35 See, e.g., Bernauer and Gleditsch 2012;Brandt, Freeman, and Schrodt 2011;Metternich et al 2013. 36 Boschee et al 2015.…”

“…51 Ward, Ahlquist, and Rozenas 2013. 52 Metternich et al 2013. where α is the overall intercept, a i , a j and γ ij are mean − 0 random effects, and z ′ i z j is the multiplicative effects term that captures the latent space.…”

Can Civilian Attitudes Predict Civil War Violence?

“…Hill & Jones, 2014;Schrodt, 2014;Metternich et al, 2013;Montgomery, Hollenbach & Ward, 2012;Braithwaite & Johnson, 2012;Goldstone et al, 2010;Weidmann & Ward, 2010;Bohorquez et al, 2009;King & Zeng, 2001;Beck, King & Zeng, 2000). While existing prediction efforts are typically cross-national, we take a disaggregated approach to data collection and predict village-level violence over variable spatial and temporal windows as finegrained as one kilometer and one day, respectively.…”