Anticipatory practices: Shifting baselines and environmental imaginaries of ecological restoration in the Columbia River Basin

Abstract

Ecological restorationists working to restore species and habitats must make decisions about how to monitor the effectiveness of their actions. In order to do this, they must determine historical baselines for populations by measuring and monitoring reference habitat sites: analog ecological systems that act as controls for comparison. Yet as climate change alters what is possible in terms of habitat restoration, drawing baselines for recovery has become fraught with difficulty. This article examines the epistemic and legal practices of baseline-setting in the case of the Columbia River Basin as well as the ways that ecological restorationists are dealing with the shifting baselines of a climate-changed river. Restorationists do this by altering their epistemic practices, using trained judgment and establishing alternative, anticipatory baselines. While the field of restoration was born out of the idea that environmental repair was about looking to the past, the discipline has transformed to look forward and even to anticipate the future. One way that this is occurring is through re-thinking baselines to reflect emerging environmental and sociotechnical imaginaries, which are enacted through epistemic practice. Anticipatory practices such as baseline-setting help sensitize the field of restoration ecology to the future, while at the same time facilitating the emergence of ideas that will enable scientifically based decision-making to continue to occur within a high level of uncertainty.

Is there evidence of shifting baseline syndrome in environmental managers? An assessment using perceptions of bird population targets in UK nature reserves

“…For example, Hirsch (2020) identified the need for anticipatory practices and targets using a case study of the Columbia River Basin, especially in the face of accelerating land-use and climate change. The study highlights the importance of baselines for future target-setting but recognises the need for adaptive predictions of future change based on emerging ecological threats (Hirsch, 2020).…”

Incorporating environmental covariates into a Bayesian stock production model for the endangered Cumberland Sound beluga population

“…CS belugas are a threatened population under SARA (SARA 2017) and considered endangered by COSEWIC (COSEWIC 2004), and it is important to consider this status when making decisions on modelling, management, and conservation. Including climate and habitat changes that are affecting endangered species is important for conservation research because in many cases, climate change is shifting the baselines that guide conservation goals (Wilkening et al 2019, Hirsch 2020. Many endangered species are specialists, endemic to their habitat, making them likely to be disproportionately affected as their habitat changes (Preston et al 2008, Gough et al 2015, Wilkening et al 2019.…”

Engaging with the science and politics of biodiversity futures: a literature review

“…In contrast, others examine how the 'environmental imaginaries' found within scientific and natural resource programmes reflect specific ideas about a future environment (Hirsch 2019). Scholarship within environmental politics, anthropology, and science and technology studies (STS) build on Anderson's concept of 'imagined communities' to examine relationships between the state and citizens, science and society (Jasanoff & Kim 2009).…”