Anticipatory natural resource science and management for a changing future

Abstract

Prolonged shifts in long‐term average climate conditions and increasing variability in short‐term weather conditions affect ecological processes, and represent a fundamental challenge for natural resource management. Recent and forthcoming advances in climate predictability may offer novel opportunities, but capitalizing on these opportunities will require focusing scientific research on understanding the links between climate and ecological responses over multiple timescales, fostering programmatic links among science and management agencies, and developing new and flexible decision‐making frameworks. Anticipating short‐ to near‐term climate conditions can help managers mitigate land degradation driven by unfavorable conditions and promote actions that make the most of favorable conditions. Similarly, anticipating long‐term, multidecadal climate trajectories can help managers to identify those species and communities that are most likely to remain viable throughout the 21st century. A focus on “anticipatory science and management” could substantially bolster natural resource planning and management but will require long‐term investment and widespread adoption.

Adapting management to a changing world: Warm temperatures, dry soil, and interannual variability limit restoration success of a dominant woody shrub in temperate drylands

“…Ecologists increasingly recognize that climate change poses a major challenge for restoration (Butterfield, Copeland, Munson, Roybal, & Wood, ; Harris, Hobbs, Higgs, & Aronson, ). However, enabling restoration in warmer and increasingly variable climates will require identifying key demographic transitions and environmental conditions driving species, such as sagebrush, so that intervention efforts can be planned to maximize success (Bradford et al., ; Hardegree et al., ). One of the most robust and consistent climate projections in the Great Basin is increasing temperatures which will lead to declines in snowpack, regardless of the effect on total precipitation (Collins et al., ; Palmquist et al., ).…”

“…For example, identifying and quantifying environmental drivers that lead to successful plant establishment after seeding and the increasing skill of midrange weather forecasting (e.g., Kapnick et al., ) could allow managers to anticipate “good” years to increase success rates. Even in the absence of skillful multimonth predictions, understanding controls over regeneration could allow assessment of benefits of seeding over multiple years (Bradford, Betancourt, Munson, & Wood, ; Chambers et al., ; Davies, Boyd, Madsen, Kerby, & Hulet, ). Yet, most reported restoration outcomes typically focus on a handful of sites and rarely link observed restoration successes and failures to environmental conditions.…”

Influence of climate, post‐treatment weather extremes, and soil factors on vegetation recovery after restoration treatments in the southwestern US

“…The positive associations between satellite‐based measures of vegetation cover and wetter years, lower annual temperatures, and higher soil available water capacity across all years post‐treatment suggest that yearly precipitation and temperature variables, which are correlated with site climate means, and soil characteristics should also be broadly considered in expectations for recovery after restoration treatments. Seasonal‐to‐subseasonal weather forecasts might help land managers adjust the application timing of seeding treatments after wildfire or prescribed burns to take advantage of favorable weather conditions (Bradford et al., ; Hardegree et al., ). In warmer and/or drier sites, timing treatments to occur during periods with optimum weather might be even more important to increase the chances of higher vegetative recovery (Shriver et al., ).…”

“…Similarly, we expected that extreme weather conditions immediately following treatment could have a substantial effect on cover because of their effects on initial plant germination and establishment. We were motivated to incorporate the effects of post‐treatment weather conditions on restoration outcomes because of the potential for managers to apply increasingly available seasonal weather forecasts when timing restoration treatments (Bradford, Betancourt, Butterfield, Munson, & Wood, ).…”

Use of landscape simulation modeling to quantify resilience for ecological applications

“…Such anticipatory management may increase treatment effectiveness and longevity (Millar and Stephenson , Bradford et al. ). For example, in Fig.…”