Anticipation of developments in industry sectors with future scenarios and creation of business models using a multi-stakeholder approach

Grienitz, Volker; Schmidt, André M.

doi:10.1504/ijfip.2012.049778

Cited by 2 publications

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“…A detailed description of our approach and the methodology for the creation of the application example can be found in Grienitz and Schmidt [43].…”

Section: The Most Important Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this context, the branch study assessed tried to assure the competitiveness of the local automotive supplier industry by thinking ahead for the future and generating promising future options for action. Figure 3 illustrates the method that was used to determine the prospective strategic positions [43]. In this way, the paper presented focuses on the phases "Social/global developments" and "Development of the automotive …”

Section: System Controllingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenario development without probabilities — focusing on the most important scenario

2013

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Within foresight management in general and scenario development in particular, the question is often asked: "For what scenario do I have to be prepared?" Since there are manifold approaches of scenario technique, the ways to answer this question with the help of scenario technique are also manifold. Scenario approaches using probabilities, for example, would recommend emphasizing the most probabilistic scenario. However, the consideration of probabilities, in our opinion, is not always useful. From a combinatorial point of view, any given scenario has an infinitesimal probability of being right, since there are so many possible variations (Gee et al. in Deep News Glob Bus Netw 2(4):199, 1991). Additionally, when regarding all possible developments that may be relevant for a scenario, each development has only an infinitesimal probability of coming true. Following these thoughts, the consideration of probabilities often has no additional benefit and, therefore, is not necessarily needed within scenario development. In this paper, the use of probabilities in scenarios will be discussed. On the one hand, this includes a discussion about scenarios in which the considerations do not make sense. On the other hand, the paper will also show an approach of considering additional information within the scenario creation process to select the most important scenario.Keywords Scenario process . Probability . Foresight . Trends PrefaceHaving developed scenarios within foresight management, it is often unclear for what scenario a company has to be prepared. Different existing scenario approaches presumably also deliver different answers in this (decision-making) situation.In this context, Bradfield et al.[2] provide a good overview of the existing schools of scenario technique using several criteria for classification. One classification criterion is the use of probabilities for the development of the scenarios. Probabilities within scenario technique are well discussed in literature -along with their advantages and disadvantages [1,3,4]. We will pick up these discussions and take a deeper look at probabilities in scenario development. We divide our consideration into three parts in order to do this: the use of probabilities within the scenario creation process; the attachment of probabilities to the developed scenarios; and probabilities in the scenario controlling process.Since we see that the disadvantages dominate the advantages of using probabilities, the paper clearly takes a position against the use of probabilities. Hence, the paper constitutes more a position paper than a discussion paper. Nevertheless, it is naturally also our intent to foster discussion about the use of probabilities. Foresight management with scenariosCompanies today find themselves in global competition with ever increasing dynamics and a complexity of framework requirements, processes and products. Apart from being internationally present, companies are also required to assure sustainable advantages in competition. Companies need to ma...

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“…A detailed description of our approach and the methodology for the creation of the application example can be found in Grienitz and Schmidt [43].…”

Section: The Most Important Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: System Controllingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario development without probabilities — focusing on the most important scenario

2013

Self Cite

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“…projections are alternative future development possibilities for the respective influence factors. With that in mind various applications of scenario technique to problems that had a morphological structure have been shown (Grienitz, schmidt, 2011;Grienitz, hausicke, Wollny, 2011;. ISSN 2029-6932 in general, it can clearly be a challenge taking many opinions into account within a short period of time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario Workshops for Strategic Management With Lego® Serious Play®

Grienitz

Schmidt

2012

PMC

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Doing the right things in a given situation at the right time is the underlying formula for the achievements of every business. It is hereby not only the evolutionary success story of humankind but also the outcome of our cognitive capabilities to think ahead possible future situations. Within strategic management, companies similarly have to think ahead future situations in due time, to ensure the necessary scope for ideas and innovations and generate promising options for action. In this context scenario technique is an appropriate method for future foresight, often realized within a workshop. Lego® Serious Play®, however, is a good tool for enabling and enhancing communication within a workshop framework. The paper presented shows a synopsis of the findings derived from the application of Lego® Serious Play® within a scenario workshop that lead to reliable future options for action. Key words: scenario technique, scenario workshop, Lego® Serious Play®.

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Anticipation of developments in industry sectors with future scenarios and creation of business models using a multi-stakeholder approach

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Scenario development without probabilities — focusing on the most important scenario

Scenario development without probabilities — focusing on the most important scenario

Scenario Workshops for Strategic Management With Lego® Serious Play®

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