Anticipating the Unexpected: Simulating a Health Care System Showing Counterintuitive Behavior

Abstract

Mark us Sch wan inge r Unive rsity of St. Galle n, Dufo urstra sse 40a, 9000 St. Galle n, Switz erland mark us. schw anin ger@ unis g. cli Abstr act. Comp lex syste ms often exhib it count erintu itive behav ior. They confr ont us with the unexp ected , and the idea of antici patin g the unexp ected is a challe nge to comm onsen se. The purpo se of this contr ibutio n is to demo nstrat e the powe r of mode ling and simul ation in disco verin g the stmct ures that gener ate count erintu itive behav ior in and of organ izatio ns. The resea rch quest ion here is if and how these gener ative "mec hanis ms" that produ ce unexp ected behav ior can be ascer tained. If this can be achie ved, then unexp ected pattem s of behav ior becom e amen able to being antici pated as contin genci es. If not, system behav ior canno t be antici pated , and it remai ns in the dark. To answ er our resea rch quest ion, we rever t to a case study of a health-care Syste m that show ed unex pecte d behav ior. Keyw ords: Dyna mic mode ling and simul ation Math emati cal mode ling Syste m Dyna mics Coun terint uitive Syste m behav ior Case study Healt h care