Anticipating Failed States in Latin America - Implications for SOUTHCOM Strategy

Abstract

With the exception of Cuba, US-Latin American relations do not have the specter of Communist influence in the hemisphere distorting the thrust of foreign policy. What does remain is the threat of crises that endangers the viability of the fledgling democracies throughout the continent. The US National Security Strategy of 1999 lists transnational issues such as narcotics trafficking, corruption, illegal immigration, organized crime, terrorism, and adherence to the rule of law as the primary security concerns in the region. These issues threaten the economic vitality of the region, which is vital to maintaining the momentum of democratization. This monograph defines the model of intra-state conflict as described by historian and social scientist Crane Brinton. His book, The Anatomy of Revolution, provides a useful framework to understand the nature of intra-state conflict. After describing Brinton's work, this monograph introduces the concept of the failed state, which affords Brinton's model fundamental differences in the initial stages of intra-state conflict. Finally, this monograph introduces the concept of Latin American authoritarian rule as manifested through the military strongman. These concepts spawn new actors that impact on the viability of the state and the well-being of the people The monograph then explores two contemporary case studies to determine how these theories are made manifest in Latin America. Panama faces the challenge of strengthening state institutions after years of military rule, while assuming full Canal operations, combating drug trafficking, and responding to incursions by Colombian guerrilla and paramilitary forces along its eastern border. Venezuela has been among the top three exporters of oil to the United States in the last ten years. The 1998 election of President Hugo Chávez, a former army lieutenant colonel and coup leader in 1992, brings the threat of a political crisis as he retools the constitution and state institutions with an authoritative efficiency that has marginalized the established political elite. The monograph continues with an analysis of the SOUTHCOM Theater Engagement Plan to determine the extent the plan is informed by the application of a conceptual framework that exposes the current political, social, economic, and military settings in Latin America as they relate to the security challenges that exist in the region.