Anticipating and responding to biological complexity in the effects of climate change on agriculture

Garrett, Karen A.; Forbes, Gregory A.; Pancle, S; Savary, Serge; Sparks, Alexis A.; Valdivia, Corinne; Cruz, Casiana Vera; Willocquet, Laetitia

doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/7/372007

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Risk management is an integral component of coping with the effects of natural hazards (Baez and Mason, 2008) and the use of meteorological data is among the risk management strategies available to producers to help assess the probability of events that foster the transmission or prevalence of pests and diseases. The analysis and monitoring of extreme weather events, and where possible their prediction, can help researchers, extension agents, farmers and pastoralists invest in the most appropriate risk management strategies (Cooper et al ., 2008) and prepare for the effects of changes in climates (Garrett et al ., 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A N D R E W FA R RO W et al Ford and Leggate, 1961;Fry and Goodwin, 1997;Haware, 1990;Jésus et al, 2008;Kousik et al, 1988;Morton, 2007;Mouliom Pefora, 1991;Nene, 1979;Reddy and Sulochanamma, 2008;Rogers et al, 1996;Thakur et al, 1991. component of coping with the effects of natural hazards (Baez and Mason, 2008) and the use of meteorological data is among the risk management strategies available to producers to help assess the probability of events that foster the transmission or prevalence of pests and diseases. The analysis and monitoring of extreme weather events, and where possible their prediction, can help researchers, extension agents, farmers and pastoralists invest in the most appropriate risk management strategies (Cooper et al, 2008) and prepare for the effects of changes in climates (Garrett et al, 2009). In this paper we focus on one example of a disease which is triggered by particular climatic conditions.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Assessing the Risk of Root Rots in Common Beans in East Africa Using Simulated, Estimated and Observed Daily Rainfall Data

Farrow¹,

Musoni²,

Cook³

et al. 2011

Ex. Agric.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

SUMMARYThis paper seeks to establish the concept that the analysis of high temporal resolution meteorological data adds value to the investigation of the effect of climatic variability on the prevalence and severity of agricultural pests and diseases. Specifically we attempt to improve disease potential maps of root rots in common beans, based on a combination of inherent susceptibility and the risk of exposure to critical weather events. We achieve this using simulated datasets of daily rainfall to assess the probability of heavy rainfall events at particular times during the cropping season. We then validate these simulated events with observations from meteorological stations in East Africa. We also assess the utility of remotely sensed daily rainfall estimates in near real time for the purposes of updating the risks of these events over large areas and for providing warnings of potential disease outbreaks. We find that simulated rainfall data provide the means to assess risk over large areas, but there are too few datasets of observed rainfall to definitively validate the probabilities of heavy rainfall events generated using rainfall simulations such as those generated by MarkSim. We also find that selected satellite rainfall estimates are unable to predict observed rainfall events with any power, but data from a sufficiently dense network of rain gauges are not available in the region. Despite these problems we show that remotely sensed rainfall estimates may provide a more realistic assessment of rainfall over large areas where rainfall observations are not available, and alternative satellite estimates should be explored.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%