Anti Pandemic Simulation by SOARS

Deguchi, Hiroshi; Kanatani, Yasuhiro; Kaneda, Toshiyuki; Koyama, Yukinobu; Ichikawa, Manabu; Tanuma, Hideki

doi:10.1109/sice.2006.315130

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…From another perspective, Faulkner [ 35 ] analyzed crises starting with an emergency phase, with no return point; an intermediate phase, in which recovery will possibly take several years; a long-term phase in which the economy and the market will be restored in a short period of time. The time scale involved in each stage may require different responses and strategies to plan and manage the results [ 36 ]. The transition period between each stage can lead to a worsening or a recovery stage [ 37 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Safety and Health Measures for COVID-19 Transition Period in the Hotel Industry in Spain

Ramírez

Merodio

Moreno-Luna

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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The health crisis caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 disease has devastated the worldwide hospitality sector. The current situation has led many countries to implement drastic rules to stop the spread of the virus. According to the Spanish health authority decisions need to be made in the context of uncertainty and lack of knowledgeable experiences through a gradual and asymmetric de-escalation process planned in four phases. Although the vast majority of studies refer to economic risks and impacts on tourist flows and economic income, few of them explicitly investigates safety and health measures that hotel managers should implement to their customers. Over a population of 12,740 hotels, 823 Spanish hotel managers have been involved in a participatory study. With the aim of assessing the actions taken to stop the spread of the virus, empirical research was implemented. A model presented four variables and 13 indicators which have been previously tested among hotel managers in the tourism sector. Five conclusions are drawn from the hypotheses: (1) Mass testing surveillance in customers and employees should be quick, affordable, and homogeneous throughout the European Union. (2) Training measures need to be taken by both public authorities and the private sector to reach a knowledgeable crisis management team with high commitment to the customer’s health and safety. (3) Protocols established by public authorities should be observed and adjusted gradually not only in hotels but also in tourist arrivals. (4) Healthy measures need to be periodically updated. (5) Each hotel should set up a surveillance process to guarantee the safety to their customers.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Safety and Health Measures for COVID-19 Transition Period in the Hotel Industry in Spain

Ramírez

Merodio

Moreno-Luna

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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“…For example, Carley, et al [4] simulate the spread of anthrax and Epstein [12] investigates the spread of smallpox with agent based models. Deguchi, et al have developed an Agent Based simulation language called SOARS, Spot Oriented Agent Role Simulator [11,10] for simulating the spread of disease considering modules such as human activities, opportunity for contact between people in a society, disease state, and intervention to control the spread. Network-based models typically represent agents as nodes on graphs and allow the connectivity structure of the graph to determine the possible spread of disease.…”

Section: Network-and Agent-based Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Hybrid Model for Disease Spread and an Application to the SARS Pandemic

Yoneyama¹,

Das²,

Krishnamoorthy³

2012

JASSS

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Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level simulations, which are harder to apply at a global scale. This paper introduces a hybrid model for pandemics considering both global and local spread of infections. We hypothesize that the spread of an infectious disease between regions is significantly influenced by global traffic patterns and the spread within a region is influenced by local conditions. Thus we model the spread of pandemics considering the connections between regions for the global spread of infection and population density based on the SEIR model for the local spread of infection. We validate our hybrid model by carrying out a simulation study for the spread of SARS pandemic of 2002-2003 using available data on population, population density, and traffic networks between different regions. While it is well-known that international relationships and global traffic patterns significantly influence the spread of pandemics, our results show that integrating these factors into relatively simple models can greatly improve the results of modeling disease spread.

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“…SIR or SEIR differential equation model), agent based, or network based model (e.g. [11][14] [15]). On the other hand, we simulate the pandemic from the global point of view considering local infection in each country.…”

Section: Related Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the spread of influenza pandemic of 2009 considering international traffic

Yoneyama

Krishnamoorthy

2011

SIMULATION

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Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. In this paper, we model the Influenza Pandemic of 2009. We propose a hybrid model to determine how the pandemic spreads through the world. The model considers both the SEIR-based model for local areas and the network model for global connection between countries referring to data on international travelers. Our interest is to reproduce the situation using the data of early stage of pandemic and to predict the future transition by extending the simulation cycle. Without considering the tendency of seasonal flu, the simulation does not predict the second peak of the pandemic in the real world. However, considering the seasonal tendency, the simulation result predicts the next peak in winter.Thus we consider the seasonal tendency is an important factor for the spreading of the pandemic.

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Anti Pandemic Simulation by SOARS

Cited by 10 publications

References 4 publications

Safety and Health Measures for COVID-19 Transition Period in the Hotel Industry in Spain

Safety and Health Measures for COVID-19 Transition Period in the Hotel Industry in Spain

A Hybrid Model for Disease Spread and an Application to the SARS Pandemic

Simulating the spread of influenza pandemic of 2009 considering international traffic

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