Anthropogenic Warming has Substantially Increased the Likelihood of July 2017–Like Heat Waves over Central Eastern China

Chen, Yang; Chen, Wei; Su, Qin; Luo, Fang; Sparrow, Sarah; Wallom, David; Tian, F.; Dong, Buwen; Tett, Simon F. B.; Lott, Fraser C.

doi:10.1175/bams-d-18-0087.1

Cited by 27 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(16 reference statements)

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“…One urgent issue is whether such an event will occur more frequently in the future. Some recent evidence showed that global warming has increased the frequency of extreme heat waves over East Asia and thus increased the health risk of more than 30 % of the population worldwide (Otto 2016;Campbell et al 2018;Chen et al 2019;Wang et al 2019). However, how global warming affects heat waves and the northward shift of the WNPSH is still unclear.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Record-Breaking Northward Shift of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High in July 2018

Liu

Zhu

et al. 2019

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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The northward shift of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) in July 2018 broke the historical record since 1958 and resulted in extreme heat waves and casualties across Northeast Asia (NEA). In the present work, we associated this extreme WNPSH anomaly with the anomalies of barotropic anticyclone above NEA originating from the strongest positive tripole pattern of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the North Atlantic in July. Both data analysis and numerical experiments indicated that the positive tripole SSTA pattern could produce an upper-tropospheric wave source over Europe, which stimulated an eastward propagating wave train along the subpolar westerly jet over the Eurasian Continent. When its anticyclonic node reached NEA, the WNPSH started to shift northward. After the cyclonic node in the circulation anomaly encountered the Tibetan Plateau (TP), atmospheric diabatic heating was enhanced over the eastern TP, initiating another subtropical wave train, which furthered the northward shift of the WNPSH. Therefore, the wave source over Europe was critical for the northward shift of the WNPSH in July, connecting the tripole SSTA pattern in the North Atlantic with the WNPSH anomaly and maintaining the downstream effects of thermal forcing over the eastern TP on the East Asian summer monsoon.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Record-Breaking Northward Shift of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High in July 2018

Liu

Zhu

et al. 2019

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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“…[ 51 ] on the 2013 extreme hot summer in eastern China, many studies have investigated the human influence on high-temperature events in different regions of China. These studies have used different analytical methods including simulations from atmospheric-only or coupled climate models, different metrics including the number of warm spring days [ 84 ], the number of summer heatwave days [ 85 ], the maxima for daily maximum and minimum temperatures [ 86 ] and the number of consecutive high-temperature events [ 87 ]. These studies consistently show that anthropogenic forcings have substantially increased the probability of high-temperature events in China.…”

Section: Attribution Of Extreme Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding human influence on climate change in China

Sun

Zhang

Ding

et al. 2021

National Science Review

102

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China's climate has been warming since the 1950s, with surface air temperature increasing at a rate higher than the global average. Changes of the climate have exerted substantial impacts on water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, and human health. Attributing past changes to causes provides a scientific foundation for national and international climate policies. Here, we review recent progress in attributing the observed climate changes over past decades in China. Anthropogenic forcings, dominated by greenhouse gas emissions, are the main drivers for the observed increases in mean and extreme temperatures. Evidence of the effect of anthropogenic forcings on precipitation is emerging. Human influence has increased the probability of extreme heat events, and has likely changed the occurrence probabilities for some heavy precipitation events. The way a specific attribution question is posed and the conditions under which the question is addressed present persistent challenges for appropriately communicating attribution results to non-specialists.

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“…During the week-long workshops, participants learnt the principles of event attribution and analyzed recent extreme events using data from the Met Office attribution system which is based on the U.K. Unified Model (see model development activities below). These workshops encouraged and facilitated the rapid development of an enhanced capability in China to carry out event attribution studies and resulted in peerreviewed publications describing the extent to which recent climate events and trends can be attributed to anthropogenic forcing (Li et al 2018a;Qian et al 2018;Chen et al 2019;Ren et al 2020, L. Zhang et al 2020W. Zhang et al 2020).…”

Section: Climate Monitoring and Attributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The U.K.–China Climate Science to Service Partnership

Scaife

Good

Sun

et al. 2021

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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We present results from the first 6 years of this major UK government funded project to accelerate and enhance collaborative research and development in climate science, forge a strong strategic partnership between UK and Chinese climate scientists and demonstrate new climate services developed in partnership. The development of novel climate services is described in the context of new modelling and prediction capability, enhanced understanding of climate variability and change, and improved observational datasets. Selected highlights are presented from over three hundred peer reviewed studies generated jointly by UK and Chinese scientists within this project. We illustrate new observational datasets for Asia and enhanced capability through training workshops on the attribution of climate extremes to anthropogenic forcing. Joint studies on the dynamics and predictability of climate have identified new opportunities for skilful predictions of important aspects of Chinese climate such as East Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall. In addition, the development of improved modelling capability has led to profound changes in model computer codes and climate model configurations, with demonstrable increases in performance. We also describe the successes and difficulties in bridging the gap between fundamental climate research and the development of novel real time climate services. Participation of dozens of institutes through sub-projects in this programme, which is governed by the Met Office Hadley Centre, the China Meteorological Administration and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, is creating an important legacy for future collaboration in climate science and services.

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Anthropogenic Warming has Substantially Increased the Likelihood of July 2017–Like Heat Waves over Central Eastern China

Cited by 27 publications

References 15 publications

Record-Breaking Northward Shift of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High in July 2018

Record-Breaking Northward Shift of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High in July 2018

Understanding human influence on climate change in China

The U.K.–China Climate Science to Service Partnership

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