Anthropogenic Intensification of Southern African Flash Droughts as Exemplified by the 2015/16 Season

Yuan, Xing; Wang, Linying; Wood, Eric F.

doi:10.1175/bams-d-17-0077.1

Cited by 108 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 9 publications

(9 reference statements)

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“…occurrences in northern South America and southern Africa based on the threshold P 10 /T 90 ). These patterns of compound events are generally consistent with previous studies showing both drought and hot conditions for this period in these regions (Herring et al 2018), such as northern South America, southern Africa (Yuan et al 2018), and southeast Asia (King et al 2016.…”

Section: Model Applicationsupporting

confidence: 91%

A monitoring and prediction system for compound dry and hot events

Hao

Xia

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Compound dry and hot events (i.e. concurrent or consecutive occurrences of dry and hot events), which may cause larger impacts than those caused by extreme events occurring in isolation, have attracted wide attention in recent decades. Increased occurrences of compound dry and hot events in different regions around the globe highlight the importance of improved understanding and modeling of these events so that they can be tracked and predicted ahead of time. In this study, a monitoring and prediction system of compound dry and hot events at the global scale is introduced. The monitoring component consists of two indicators (standardized compound event indicator and a binary variable) that incorporate both dry and hot conditions for characterizing the severity and occurrence. The two indicators are shown to perform well in depicting compound dry and hot events during June-July-August 2010 in western Russia. The prediction component consists of two statistical models, including a conditional distribution model and a logistic regression model, for predicting compound dry and hot events based on El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which is shown to significantly affect compound events of several regions, including northern South America, southern Africa, southeast Asia, and Australia. These models are shown to perform well in predicting compound events in large regions (e.g. northern South America and southern Africa) during December-January-February 2015-2016. This monitoring and prediction system could be useful for providing early warning information of compound dry and hot events.

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Section: Model Applicationsupporting

confidence: 91%

A monitoring and prediction system for compound dry and hot events

Hao

Xia

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…This is because the availability of usable water sources (e.g., soil moisture, streamflow, groundwater) is likely determined by precipitation recorded over long integration periods (i.e., months to years; see Barker et al, ; López‐Moreno et al, ; Scaini et al, ) whereas the effect of AED is probably more limited in time and likely has a more important role during periods of higher demand (i.e., the warm season). Working at the European scale, Manning et al (), suggested that AEDs optimal integration time is strongly relevant to explain soil moisture and that the intensification of drying over short periods would be caused by enhanced AED (e.g., during heat waves), which has been suggested as the main trigger of “flash droughts” (Otkin et al, ; Yuan, Wang, & Wood, ). This issue deserves further research to determine the timing and possible seasonal differences in the role of the AED in drought severity.…”

Section: How Is Aed Used To Quantify Drought Severity? Limitations Anmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unraveling the influence of atmospheric evaporative demand on drought and its response to climate change

Vicente‐Serrano

McVicar

Miralles

et al. 2019

WIREs Climate Change

147

163

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This review examines the role of the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) in drought. AED is a complex concept and here we discuss possible AED definitions, the subsequent metrics to measure and estimate AED, and the different physical drivers that control it. The complex influence of AED on meteorological, environmental/agricultural and hydrological droughts is discussed, stressing the important spatial differences related to the climatological conditions. Likewise, AED influence on drought has implications regarding how different drought metrics consider AED in their attempts to quantify drought severity. Throughout the article, we assess literature findings with respect to: (a) recent drought trends and future projections; (b) the several uncertainties related to data availability; (c) the sensitivity of current drought metrics to AED; and (d) possible roles that both the radiative and physiological effects of increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations may play as we progress into the future.All these issues preclude identifying a simple effect of the AED on drought severity.Rather it calls for different evaluations of drought impacts and trends under future climate scenarios, considering the complex feedbacks governing the climate system. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Earth System Behavior K E Y W O R D S atmospheric evaporative demand,

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“…In China, anthropogenic warming may exacerbate future flash drought conditions, most likely over humid and semi‐humid regions such as southern and north‐eastern China (Wang et al, ; Zhang, Tang, et al, ; Zhang, You, et al, ). Moreover, in South Africa, flash droughts have tripled due to anthropogenic climate change over the last 60 years and were intensified during the 2015–2016 heatwaves (Yuan et al, ). These suggest that human activities have increased the probability of warm climates under the conditions of low‐precipitation years (Diffenbaugh et al, ).…”

Section: Development Of Drought Types and Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought: Progress in broadening its understanding

Haile

Tang

et al. 2019

WIREs Water

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Drought affects many aspects of society and its impact is global. To this end, rendering recurrent drought occurrences is a key research focus. Recently, in addition to existing knowledge, progress in scientific advancements regarding drought have been observed on a regional and global scale. Here, we reviewed and outlined current and emerging scientific developments in drought, focusing on progress made in recent years. In the human‐modified world, the anthropogenic effects on drought were dominant and drought‐frequency showed a prominent increase. In this study, we have identified the development of drought concepts, types, and indices, and their indicators were developed as sector‐specific, comprehensive, and oriented towards multiple scales. Anthropogenic changes have enhanced hydrological processes and affected the development of drought. Urbanization, deforestation, and related human activities have aggravated drought. Climate change has had an exacerbating role in drought, which is expected to increase during the 21st century. Human communities, in particular, are undertaking activities that cause droughts; suffering from and coping with their impact. In addition, the direct and indirect effects of drought need reconsideration. As such, the health impact of droughts is a concern in drought‐vulnerable societies and its burden on public health is largely unknown. The need for drought recovery to aid in effective ecosystem functioning in the aftermath of the drought and the development of mitigation measures to alleviate recurrent drought is critical. Enhanced drought monitoring and management options are required under existing environmental and socio‐economic setups in the 21st century. This article is characterized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Engineering Water > Planning Water Water and Life > Stresses and Pressures on Ecosystems

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Anthropogenic Intensification of Southern African Flash Droughts as Exemplified by the 2015/16 Season

Cited by 108 publications

References 9 publications

A monitoring and prediction system for compound dry and hot events

A monitoring and prediction system for compound dry and hot events

Unraveling the influence of atmospheric evaporative demand on drought and its response to climate change

Drought: Progress in broadening its understanding

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