Anthropogenic Forcings and Associated Changes in Fire Risk in Western North America and Australia During 2015/16

Tett, Simon F. B.; Falk, Alexander Tuan; Rogers, Megan; Spuler, Fiona; Turner, Calum; Wainwright, J. H.; Dimdore-Miles, Oscar; Knight, S. H.; Freychet, Nicolas; Mineter, Michael J.; Lehmann, Caroline

doi:10.1175/bams-d-17-0096.1

Cited by 10 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…A robust attribution study of the 2019–20 bushfires demonstrates the role of climate change in these fires, highlighting the importance of rising temperature extremes and persistent drought, and echoing previous findings for other bushfires 13,25,26 . This indicator reports change in days when the Fire Danger Index is high to extreme (4–6), as well as population exposure to bushfires since 2001, using the same data and methodology described in the 2020 global Lancet Countdown report 15 .…”

Section: Section 1: Climate Change Impacts Exposures and Vulnerabilitysupporting

confidence: 62%

The 2020 special report of the MJA–Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: lessons learnt from Australia’s “Black Summer”

Zhang

Beggs

McGushin

et al. 2020

Medical Journal of Australia

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Section: Section 1: Climate Change Impacts Exposures and Vulnerabilitysupporting

confidence: 62%

The 2020 special report of the MJA–Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: lessons learnt from Australia’s “Black Summer”

Zhang

Beggs

McGushin

et al. 2020

Medical Journal of Australia

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“…Overall, we find that over the period 1979 to 2020, anthropogenic warming has contributed at least twice as much as natural variability to the rapid increase of fire weather risk. Our observational analogue-based attribution approach complements the estimates we obtain from global climate model simulations (10,16,28). Both methods constrain the range of the true contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the observed increase of VPD over the WUS.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States

Zhuang

Santer

et al. 2021

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

102

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Previous studies have identified a recent increase in wildfire activity in the western United States (WUS). However, the extent to which this trend is due to weather pattern changes dominated by natural variability versus anthropogenic warming has been unclear. Using an ensemble constructed flow analogue approach, we have employed observations to estimate vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the leading meteorological variable that controls wildfires, associated with different atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results show that for the period 1979 to 2020, variation in the atmospheric circulation explains, on average, only 32% of the observed VPD trend of 0.48 ± 0.25 hPa/decade (95% CI) over the WUS during the warm season (May to September). The remaining 68% of the upward VPD trend is likely due to anthropogenic warming. The ensemble simulations of climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project suggest that anthropogenic forcing explains an even larger fraction of the observed VPD trend (88%) for the same period and region. These models and observational estimates likely provide a lower and an upper bound on the true impact of anthropogenic warming on the VPD trend over the WUS. During August 2020, when the August Complex “Gigafire” occurred in the WUS, anthropogenic warming likely explains 50% of the unprecedented high VPD anomalies.

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“…When compared with ongoing anthropogenic climate change, which ecological systems and regions would be most helped or most harmed by climate intervention? Rather than only temperature reduction targets, could approaches to planetary climate intervention incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem outcomes as the targets, such as preserving the ecological integrity of the Great Barrier Reef, the Amazon, and the Arctic, reducing the decline of North Atlantic fisheries ( 13 , 14 ), or reducing forest fire risk in vulnerable systems in Australia and California ( 15 , 16 )? The answers to these critical questions are necessary to inform future decisions about potential implementation.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth

Zarnetske

Gurevitch

Franklin

et al. 2021

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth’s surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth’s albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth’s climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth’s surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.

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Anthropogenic Forcings and Associated Changes in Fire Risk in Western North America and Australia During 2015/16

Cited by 10 publications

References 5 publications

The 2020 special report of the MJA–Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: lessons learnt from Australia’s “Black Summer”

The 2020 special report of the MJA–Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: lessons learnt from Australia’s “Black Summer”

Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States

Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth

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