Anthropogenic and natural contributions to regional trends in aerosol optical depth, 1980–2006

Streets, David G.; Yan, Fuwu; Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas; Mahowald, N. M.; Schultz, Martin; Wild, Martin; Wu, Ye; Yu, Carolyne

doi:10.1029/2008jd011624

Cited by 242 publications

(230 citation statements)

References 84 publications

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“…Nevertheless, the model tends to underestimate AOD values over source regions (except for Africa) and overestimate AOD over remote regions. The underestimates of AOD over India and China indicate that anthropogenic emissions of carbonaceous aerosols and sulfate precursors in ECLIPSE V5a are underestimated because carbonaceous aerosols and sulfate account for over 60 % of the AOD over these two countries (Lu et al, 2011;Streets et al, 2009), which may introduce uncertainties for our climate estimates. The simulations reflect a present-day climatology forced with recycled year 2010 anthropogenic emissions.…”

Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Global radiative effects of solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions

et al. 2018

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Abstract. We apply the NCAR CAM5-Chem global aerosolclimate model to quantify the net global radiative effects of black and organic carbon aerosols from global and Indian solid fuel cookstove emissions for the year 2010. Our assessment accounts for the direct radiative effects, changes to cloud albedo and lifetime (aerosol indirect effect, AIE), impacts on clouds via the vertical temperature profile (semidirect effect, SDE) and changes in the surface albedo of snow and ice (surface albedo effect). In addition, we provide the first estimate of household solid fuel black carbon emission effects on ice clouds. Anthropogenic emissions are from the IIASA GAINS ECLIPSE V5a inventory. A global dataset of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) measurements from surface sites and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from AERONET is used to evaluate the model skill. Compared with observations, the model successfully reproduces the spatial patterns of atmospheric BC and OA concentrations, and agrees with measurements to within a factor of 2. Globally, the simulated AOD agrees well with observations, with a normalized mean bias close to zero. However, the model tends to underestimate AOD over India and China by ∼ 19 ± 4 % but overestimate it over Africa by ∼ 25 ± 11 % (± represents modeled temporal standard deviations for n = 5 run years). Without BC serving as ice nuclei (IN), global and Indian solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions have net global cooling radiative effects of −141 ± 4 mW m −2 and −12 ± 4 mW m −2 , respectively (± represents modeled temporal standard deviations for n = 5 run years). The net radiative impacts are dominated by the AIE and SDE mechanisms, which originate from enhanced cloud condensation nuclei concentrations for the formation of liquid and mixedphase clouds, and a suppression of convective transport of water vapor from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere that in turn leads to reduced ice cloud formation. When BC is allowed to behave as a source of IN, the net global radiative impacts of the global and Indian solid fuel cookstove emissions range from −275 to +154 mW m −2 and −33 to +24 mW m −2 , with globally averaged values of −59 ± 215 and 0.3 ± 29 mW m −2 , respectively. Here, the uncertainty range is based on sensitivity simulations that alter the maximum freezing efficiency of BC across a plausible range: 0.01, 0.05 and 0.1. BC-ice cloud interactions lead to substantial increases in high cloud (< 500 hPa) fractions. Thus, the net sign of the impacts of carbonaceous aerosols from solid fuel cookstoves on global climate (warming or cooling) remains ambiguous until improved constraints on BC interactions with mixed-phase and ice clouds are available.

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Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Global radiative effects of solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions

et al. 2018

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“…The plausible suggestion was made by Wild et al (7) that the rapid warming in the late twentieth century was a consequence of the cessation of global dimming, possibly in part from the imposition of controls on sulfur emission in the industrialized nations (8,9). This paper examines further the hypothesis that variations in R s have caused much of the observed decadal variability in the rate of warming.…”

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confidence: 90%

Contribution of solar radiation to decadal temperature variability over land

Wang

Dickinson

2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

129

120

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Global air temperature has become the primary metric for judging global climate change. The variability of global temperature on a decadal timescale is still poorly understood. This paper examines further one suggested hypothesis, that variations in solar radiation reaching the surface (R s ) have caused much of the observed decadal temperature variability. Because R s only heats air during the day, its variability is plausibly related to the variability of diurnal temperature range (daily maximum temperature minus its minimum). We show that the variability of diurnal temperature range is consistent with the variability of R s at timescales from monthly to decadal. This paper uses long comprehensive datasets for diurnal temperature range to establish what has been the contribution of R s to decadal temperature variability. It shows that R s over land globally peaked in the 1930s, substantially decreased from the 1940s to the 1970s, and changed little after that. Reduction of R s caused a reduction of more than 0.2°C in mean temperature during May to October from the 1940s through the 1970s, and a reduction of nearly 0.2°C in mean air temperature during November to April from the 1960s through the 1970s. This cooling accounts in part for the near-constant temperature from the 1930s into the 1970s. Since then, neither the rapid increase in temperature from the 1970s through the 1990s nor the slowdown of warming in the early twenty-first century appear to be significantly related to changes of R s .global dimming | global brightening | global warming | surface incident solar radiation | decadal variability G lobal temperature has become the primary metric for judging global climate change, although many other factors are recognized to be of comparable importance. The overall increase of global temperature over the last century has been largely attributed to the increase of greenhouse gases (1). Less well understood are the reasons for the variability of this increase on a decadal timescale. In particular, warming from 1900 to 1940 was followed by three decades of flat or slightly decreasing temperature, then three decades of very rapid temperature increase, then so far in this century, very little additional increase. The two most plausible explanations for the decadal variability are natural climate variability and variable degrees of cooling from anthropogenic releases of sulfur gas producing sulfate aerosols (2). This effect has long been proposed as a mechanism to counter greenhouse warming (3), has become the basis for many geoengineering proposals (4), and has been used to attribute the lack of warming so far this century to the rapid growth of aerosols in Asia (5).Besides the difference in sign of their temperature effects, sulfate aerosols are distinguished from greenhouse gases in that they only affect daytime radiation, i.e., surface incident solar radiation (R s ). Some kinds of natural variability can also act through affecting R s , i.e., those involving cloud properties.Changes of aerosol loading and ...

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“…We aggregated this IEA fuel consumption data into and Lu et al 41 respectively. For other countries, technology distributions are taken from our previous work [42][43][44] and modified by estimates of residential biofuel combustion from the GAINS model 45 (http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/models) and estimates of transportation combustion from Yan et al 46 . We also classified 16 non-combustion sources for the industrial process sector.…”

Section: Production-based Emission Inventorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade

Zhang

Jiang

Tong

et al. 2017

Nature

Self Cite

820

464

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Millions of people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Some studies have estimated premature mortality related to local sources of air pollution6, 7, but local air quality can also be affected by atmospheric transport of pollution from distant sources8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18. International trade is contributing to the globalization of emission and pollution as a result of the production of goods (and their associated emissions) in one region for consumption in another region14, 19, 20, 21, 22. The effects of international trade on air pollutant emissions23, air quality14 and health24 have been investigated regionally, but a combined, global assessment of the health impacts related to international trade and the transport of atmospheric air pollution is lacking. Here we combine four global models to estimate premature mortality caused by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution as a result of atmospheric transport and the production and consumption of goods and services in different world regions. We find that, of the 3.45 million premature deaths related to PM2.5 pollution in 2007 worldwide, about 12 per cent (411,100 deaths) were related to air pollutants emitted in a region of the world other than that in which the death occurred, and about 22 per cent (762,400 deaths) were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. For example, PM2.5 pollution produced in China in 2007 is linked to more than 64,800 premature deaths in regions other than China, including more than 3,100 premature deaths in western Europe and the USA; on the other hand, consumption in western Europe and the USA is linked to more than 108,600 premature deaths in China. Our results reveal that the transboundary health impacts of PM2.5 pollution associated with international trade are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport

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Anthropogenic and natural contributions to regional trends in aerosol optical depth, 1980–2006

Cited by 242 publications

References 84 publications

Global radiative effects of solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions

Global radiative effects of solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions

Contribution of solar radiation to decadal temperature variability over land

Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade

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