Anomalous asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Google Trends patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Background An increase in online searches on health topics may either mirror epidemiological changes or reflect media coverage. In the context of COVID-19, this is particularly relevant, as COVID-19 symptoms may be mistaken for those of respiratory disease exacerbations. Therefore, we aimed to assess Internet search patterns on asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the context of COVID-19, as compared to searches on other chronic diseases. Methods We retrieved Google Trends (GTs) data on two respiratory (asthma and COPD) and three non-respiratory (diabetes, hypertension, and Crohn’s disease) chronic diseases over the past 5 years (up to May 31, 2020). For 54 countries, and for each disease, we built autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict GTs for 2020 based on 2015–2019 search patterns. In addition, we estimated the proportion of searches in which COVID-19-related terms were used. To assess the potential impact of media coverage on online searches, we assessed whether weekly “asthma” GTs correlated with the number of Google News items on asthma. Results Over the past 5 years, worldwide search volumes for asthma and COPD reached their maximum values in March 2020. Such was not observed for diabetes, hypertension and Crohn’s disease. In 38 (70%) countries, GTs on asthma were higher in March 2020 than the respective maximum predicted values. This compares to 19 countries for COPD, 23 for hypertension, 11 for Crohn’s disease, and 9 for diabetes. Queries with COVID-19-related terms represented up to 47.8% of the monthly searches on asthma, and up to 21.3% of COPD searches. In most of the assessed countries, moderate-strong correlations were observed between “asthma” GTs and the number of news items on asthma. Conclusions During March 2020, there was a peak in searches on asthma and COPD, which was probably mostly driven by media coverage, as suggested by their simultaneity in several countries with different epidemiological situations.

United States Influenza Search Patterns Since the Emergence of COVID-19: Infodemiology Study

“…Both COVID-19 and influenza are respiratory diseases and share several common symptoms (such as fever, cough, and sore throat [ 25 ]) alongside seasonality [ 26 ]. An analogous scenario was demonstrated [ 27 ], identifying that searches for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease peaked in March 2020, and the increase in asthma searches was attributed to the potential shared respiratory effects of COVID-19 and asthma and to the large media coverage on COVID-19.…”

Prediction of Asthma Hospitalizations for the Common Cold Using Google Trends: Infodemiology Study

“…For example, for several countries in Europe and America, search peaks on anosmia or ageusia had a better correlation with media coverage than with the epidemiological situation of COVID-19 [ 21 ]. Media coverage also appears to have played a decisive role in driving search peaks for asthma during the COVID-19 pandemic [ 11 ]. Although, at first sight, we could believe that media coverage does not particularly bias GT data in this study (as the common cold is a frequent and mild condition that does not drive media attention), the previously discussed Spanish anomalous data peak suggests that this factor should not be discarded.…”

“…We started in the Northern Hemisphere Summer of 2015 (week of June 21, 2015) and based our models on the trend component of asthma hospitalizations and on GT data from the 3 previous years (weeks of July 1, 2012-June 14, 2015). Seasonal ARIMA models are defined by the parameters ( p , d , q )( P , D , Q ) s , where p corresponds to the order of autoregression, d is the degree of difference, q is the order of the moving average part, P is the seasonal order of autoregression, D is the seasonal integration, Q is the seasonal moving average, and s is the length of the seasonal period [ 11 , 15 ]. We applied seasonal ARIMA (3,0,2)(0,1,1) 52 models.…”

“…Web-based searches on asthma and related terms have been assessed in previous studies [ 8 , 9 ]. However, GT for the search term asthma [ 7 ] only allows for the easy identification of large outbreaks (such as thunderstorm-induced asthma) [ 10 ] or media coverage–driven search peaks [ 11 ]. In fact, seasonal variations in pollen concentrations, which influence the occurrence of asthma exacerbations, are not reflected in GT for asthma [ 9 ].…”

Improved asthma control during the COVID-19 pandemic: are there lessons to be learnt?

“…6 Patients with chronic lung diseases may have been particularly concerned about the effects of the pandemic on their disease, with increased online searches on asthma and COPD observed at the onset of the pandemic. 7 Perception of risk is an important factor in value judgements patients may make about the value of their medication and adherence to self-management plans. Consistent with perceived increased risk, Davies and colleagues report a spike in primary care general practice (GP) prescriptions for inhaled and oral corticosteroids in people with asthma in Wales in the week preceding lockdown.…”