Climate change and human activities have increased droughts, especially overgrazing and deforestation, which seriously threaten the balance of terrestrial ecosystems. The ecological carrying capacity and vegetation cover in the arid zone of Xinjiang, China, are generally low, necessitating research on vegetation response to drought in such arid regions. In this study, we analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2020 and revealed the response mechanism of SIF to multi-timescale drought in different vegetation types using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data. We employed trend analysis, standardized anomaly index (SAI), Pearson correlation, and trend prediction techniques. Our investigation focused on the correlations between GOSIF (a new SIF product based on the Global Orbital Carbon Observatory-2), NDVI, and EVI with SPEI12 for different vegetation types over the past two decades. Additionally, we examined the sensitivities of vegetation GOSIF to various scales of SPEI in a typical drought year and predicted future drought trends in Xinjiang. The results revealed that the spatial distribution characteristics of GOSIF, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) were consistent, with mean correlations with SPEI at 0.197, 0.156, and 0.128, respectively. GOSIF exhibited the strongest correlation with SPEI, reflecting the impact of drought stress on vegetation photosynthesis. Therefore, GOSIF proves advantageous for drought monitoring purposes. Most vegetation types showed a robust response of GOSIF to SPEI at a 9-month scale during a typical drought year, with grassland GOSIF being particularly sensitive to drought. Our trend predictions indicate a decreasing trend in GOSIF vegetation in Xinjiang, coupled with an increasing trend in drought. This study found that compared with that of the traditional greenness vegetation index, GOSIF has obvious advantages in monitoring drought in the arid zone of Xinjiang. Furthermore, it makes up for the lack of research on the mechanism of vegetation GOSIF response to drought on multiple timescales in the arid zone. These results provide strong theoretical support for investigating the monitoring, assessment, and prediction of vegetation response to drought in Xinjiang, which is vital for comprehending the mechanisms of carbon and water cycles in terrestrial ecosystems.
