Annual estimates of occupancy for bryophytes, lichens and invertebrates in the UK, 1970–2015

Outhwaite, Charlotte L.; Powney, Gary D.; August, Tom; Chandler, Richard E.; Rorke, Stephanie L.; Pescott, Oliver L.; Harvey, Martin; Roy, Helen E.; Fox, Richard; Roy, David B.; Alexander, Keith N. A.; Ball, Stuart G.; Bantock, T.; Barber, Tony; Beckmann, Björn C.; Cook, T. L.; Flanagan, Jim; Fowles, Adrian; Hammond, P C; Harvey, Peter; Hepper, David; Hubble, Dave; Kramer, John; Lee, Paul; Macadam, Craig R.; Morris, Roger; Norris, Adrian; Palmer, Stephen C. F.; Plant, C. W.; Simkin, Janet; Stubbs, Alan; Sutton, Peter G.; Telfer, Mark G.; Wallace, Ian J.; Isaac, Nick J. B.

doi:10.1038/s41597-019-0269-1

Cited by 52 publications

(107 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Our are comprised of occupancy estimates for 5,214 species in 31 taxonomic groups for each year from 1970-2015 29 . These estimates are derived from hierarchical Bayesian occupancy-detection models for each species and are based on 24,090,792 presence-only biological records.…”

Section: Multispecies Trends In Occupancymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Complex long-term biodiversity change among invertebrates, bryophytes and lichens

et al. 2020

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Large-scale biodiversity change is measured largely through the responses of a few taxonomic groups. Much less is known about the trends affecting most invertebrates and other neglected taxa, and it is unclear whether well-studied taxa, such as vertebrates, reflect changes in wider biodiversity. Here, we present and analyse trends in the UK distributions of over 5,000 species of invertebrates, bryophytes and lichens, measured as changes in occupancy. Our results reveal substantial variation in both the magnitude, direction and timing of change over the last forty-five years. Just one of the four major groups analysed, terrestrial non-insect invertebrates, exhibit the declining trend reported among vertebrates and butterflies. Both terrestrial insects and bryophytes & lichens increased in average occupancy. A striking pattern is found among freshwater species, which have undergone a strong recovery since the mid-nineties following two decades of decline. We show that, while average occupancy among most groups appears to have been stable or increasing, there has been substantial change in the relative commonness and rarity of individual species, indicating considerable turnover in community composition. Additionally, large numbers of species experienced substantial declines. Our results suggest a more complex pattern of biodiversity change in the UK than previously reported.

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Section: Multispecies Trends In Occupancymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…terrestrial and freshwater species from 31 groups including many insect families, other invertebrate groups, bryophytes and lichens 29 . We quantify trends in average occupancy across taxa and over time and explore differences between common and rare species.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Complex long-term biodiversity change among invertebrates, bryophytes and lichens

et al. 2020

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“…centipedes and fungus gnats). 5,293 of these trend outputs (comprising all species with >50 records) have already been published (Outhwaite et al, 2019).…”

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our results are therefore based on the specific pattern of biodiversity recording by volunteers in GB and the formulation of the Bayesian occupancy models employed by Outhwaite et al (2019).…”

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here we used trend outputs from Bayesian occupancy analyses that had already been run for a total of 10,967 species from 34 multi-species recording schemes (hereafter called 'projects'; median species per project = 169; range = 9-1002); many of these are publically available (C. L. Outhwaite et al, 2019), although outputs from species with less than 50 records have not been released (Outhwaite et al, in press). The Bayesian occupancy analyses were run over the 47…”

Section: Description Of Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rapid assessment of the suitability of multi-species citizen science datasets for occupancy trend analysis

Pocock

Logie

Isaac

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Species records from volunteers are a vast and valuable source of information on biodiversity for a wide range of taxonomic groups. Although these citizen science data are opportunistic and unstructured, occupancy analysis can be used to quantify trends in distribution. However, occupancy analysis of unstructured data can be resourceintensive and requires substantial expertise. It is valuable to have simple 'rules of thumb' to efficiently assess the suitability of a dataset for occupancy analysis prior to analysis.• Our analysis was possible due to the production of trends, from our Bayesian occupancy analysis, for 10 967 species from 34 multi-species recording schemes in Great Britain.These schemes had an average of 500 visits to sites per year, and an average of 20% of visited sites received a revisit in a year. Occupancy trend outputs varied in their precision and we used expert elicitation on a subset of outputs to determine a precision threshold above which trends were suitable for further consideration. We then used classification trees with seven metrics to define simple rules explaining when the data would result in outputs that met the precision threshold.• We found that the suitability of a species' data was best described by (i) the number of records of the focal species in the 10% best-recorded years, and (ii) the proportion of recording visits for that taxonomic group with non-detections of the focal species.Surprisingly few data were required to be predicted to meet the precision threshold.Specifically, for 98% confidence that our Bayesian occupancy models would produce outputs meeting the precision threshold, there needed to be ≥29 records of the focal species in the 10% best-recorded years (equivalent to an average of 12.5 records per year in our dataset), although only ≥10 records (equivalent to 4.5 records per year) were required for species recorded in less than 1 in 25 visits.• We applied these rules to regional species data for Great Britain. Data from 32% of the species:region combinations met the precision threshold with 80% confidence, and 14% with 98% confidence. There was great variation between taxonomic groups (e.g.butterflies, moths and dragonflies were well recorded) and region (e.g. south-east England was best recorded).• These simple criteria provide no indication of the accuracy or representativeness of the trend outputs: this is vital, but needs to be assessed individually. However our criteria do provide a rapid, quantitative assessment of the predicted suitability of existing data for occupancy analysis and could be used to inform the design and implementation of multispecies citizen science recording projects elsewhere in the world.

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occAssess: An R package for assessing potential biases in species occurrence data

Boyd

Powney

Carvell

et al. 2021

Ecology and Evolution

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Annual estimates of occupancy for bryophytes, lichens and invertebrates in the UK, 1970–2015

Cited by 52 publications

References 29 publications

Complex long-term biodiversity change among invertebrates, bryophytes and lichens

Complex long-term biodiversity change among invertebrates, bryophytes and lichens

Rapid assessment of the suitability of multi-species citizen science datasets for occupancy trend analysis

occAssess: An R package for assessing potential biases in species occurrence data

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