The Niagara Tunnel Project (NTP) is a 10.1 km long water-diversion tunnel in Niagara Falls, Ontario, which was excavated by a 7.2 m radius tunnel boring machine. Approximately half the tunnel length was excavated through the Queenston Formation, which locally is a shale to mudstone. Typical overbreak depths ranged between 2 and 4 m with a maximum of 6 m observed. Three modelling approaches were used to back analyse the brittle failure process at the NTP: damage initiation and spalling limit, laminated anisotropy modelling, and ubiquitous joint approaches. Analyses were conducted for three tunnel chainages: 3 ? 000, 3 ? 250, and 3 ? 500 m because the overbreak depth increased from 2 to 4 m. All approaches produced similar geometries to those measured. The laminated anisotropy modelling approach was able to produced chord closures closest to those measured, using a joint normal to shear stiffness ratio between 1 and 2. This understanding was applied to a shaft excavation model in the Queenston Formation at the proposed Deep Geological Repository (DGR) site for low and intermediate level nuclear waste storage in Canada. The maximum damage depth was 1.9 m; with an average of 1.0 m. Important differences are discussed between the tunnel and shaft orientation with respect to bedding. The models show that the observed normalized depth of failure at the NTP would over-predict the depth of damage expected in the Queenston Formation at the DGR.