Animal Reservoir, Natural and Socioeconomic Variations and the Transmission of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chenzhou, China, 2006–2010

Abstract

BackgroundChina has the highest incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) worldwide. Reported cases account for 90% of the total number of global cases. By 2010, approximately 1.4 million HFRS cases had been reported in China. This study aimed to explore the effect of the rodent reservoir, and natural and socioeconomic variables, on the transmission pattern of HFRS.Methodology/Principal FindingsData on monthly HFRS cases were collected from 2006 to 2010. Dynamic rodent monitoring data, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, climate data, and socioeconomic data were also obtained. Principal component analysis was performed, and the time-lag relationships between the extracted principal components and HFRS cases were analyzed. Polynomial distributed lag (PDL) models were used to fit and forecast HFRS transmission. Four principal components were extracted. Component 1 (F1) represented rodent density, the NDVI, and monthly average temperature. Component 2 (F2) represented monthly average rainfall and monthly average relative humidity. Component 3 (F3) represented rodent density and monthly average relative humidity. The last component (F4) represented gross domestic product and the urbanization rate. F2, F3, and F4 were significantly correlated, with the monthly HFRS incidence with lags of 4 months (r = −0.289, P<0.05), 5 months (r = −0.523, P<0.001), and 0 months (r = −0.376, P<0.01), respectively. F1 was correlated with the monthly HFRS incidence, with a lag of 4 months (r = 0.179, P = 0.192). Multivariate PDL modeling revealed that the four principal components were significantly associated with the transmission of HFRS.ConclusionsThe monthly trend in HFRS cases was significantly associated with the local rodent reservoir, climatic factors, the NDVI, and socioeconomic conditions present during the previous months. The findings of this study may facilitate the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS and similar diseases.

Changes in Rodent Abundance and Weather Conditions Potentially Drive Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Outbreaks in Xi’an, China, 2005–2012

“…These models predicted HFRS incidence one-month-ahead with pseudo-R 2 values of 81–82%. These results are valuable since they point the way to an early warning signal prior to potential HFRS outbreaks via increases in rodent density or rainfall [ 15 , 34 ].…”

Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity Analysis of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in China Using Geographically Weighted Regression Models

“…Rodents are the predominant reservoir of hantavirus and excrete virus-containing urine, feces, and saliva when chronically infected. Humans usually become infected with hantaviruses through contact with or inhalation of aerosols and secretions from infected rodent hosts [ 4 ].The external environmental factors, including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, NDVI, elevation and land use, not only affect the rate of replication of virus, but also have an impact on disease reservoir-rodents and contact between the human and rodent populations [ 5 ], which eventually affects HFRS incidence.…”

“…Studies in different areas of China and other countries have suggested that external environmental factors, including natural factors (such as temperature [ 6 , 7 , 8 ], precipitation [ 4 , 5 , 9 ], humidity [ 7 ], normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) [ 10 , 11 ] and elevation [ 6 ]) and social-economic factors (such as land use [ 6 , 12 ]), may affect the incidence of HFRS. These factors may differentially influence the incidence of HFRS in different regions because of the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in climate types, ecological characteristics, population immunity, public health intervention measures, and socioeconomic factors within different regions [ 13 ].…”

China's capacity of hospitals to deal with infectious diseases in the context of climate change

“…HFRS, a serious zoonotic disease caused by hantaviruses, can be transmitted to humans by contact with infected rodents or their excreta . The disease is frequently reported in China where roughly 90% of the world's cases occur (Xiao et al, 2014). Although the incidence of HFRS significantly declined during the 1990s, there has been an increasing trend since 2008 (Xiao et al, 2014;Zhang et al, 2014).…”

“…The disease is frequently reported in China where roughly 90% of the world's cases occur (Xiao et al, 2014). Although the incidence of HFRS significantly declined during the 1990s, there has been an increasing trend since 2008 (Xiao et al, 2014;Zhang et al, 2014). The possible reasons for the emergence and re-emergence of these infectious diseases may be linked to climate change, population movement, rapid urbanization and increased surveillance efforts (Tong et al, 2015;Wu et al, 2016).…”