Andean countries at a crossroads: Evaluating pro-poor trade integration options

Guatemala: Desafíos de la inserción internacional

“…El Acuerdo de Asociación entre los países de Centroamérica y la UE, según estimaciones de BID-INT (Giordano y Watanuki, 2008), tendrá un impacto positivo sobre los indicadores de comercio exterior, como también sobre el PIB, el empleo y la reducción de la pobreza en Guatemala (Cuadro 3). Así, las exportaciones de Guatemala a la UE (UE-27) aumentarían por encima de 21% sobre el año base (2004); es decir, el porcentaje más alto entre los cinco países del MCCA después de Honduras.…”

“…Excluye los productos sensibles: arroz, trigo, otros granos, azúcar, carne de res, carne porcina y lácteos. /2 Corresponde al número de personas.Fuente:Giordano y Watanuki (2008), en base al modelo BID-INT de equilibrio general computable.…”

Trade and Poverty in Latin America

“…Indeed, the shrinking gains from trade liberalization documented by Bouët (2006) are-in large part-due to the incorrect measurement of trade protection, the lack of consideration of trade preferences, and the use of ad hoc aggregation procedures. A robust identification of AVEs-such as that used in Giordano, Méndez-Parra, andWatanuki (2007a, 2007b)-reveals a high sensitivity of CGE model results to the assumptions made on trade-protection measures. This is particularly important in the agriculture sector, which is protected by tariff-rate quotas, specific and compound tariffs, and domestic support measures for which AVEs are difficult to determine.…”

“…The main summary is that the likely effect of an FTA will be a substantial positive impact on the Colombian economy. Giordano and Watanuki (2007) develop and calibrate a computable general equilibrium model to examine the sectoral, regional, and distributive effects of the agreement (through microsimulations based on household survey data). The authors conclude that the FTA will be responsible for a moderate decrease in overall poverty and indigence.…”