Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is useful to assist with identification of the source of a biological sample, or to confirm matrilineal relatedness. Although the autosomal genome is much larger, mtDNA has an advantage for forensic applications of multiple copy number per cell, allowing better recovery of sequence information from degraded samples. In addition, biological samples such as fingernails, old bones, teeth and hair have mtDNA but little or no autosomal DNA. The relatively low mutation rate of the mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) means that there can be large sets of matrilineal-related individuals sharing a common mitogenome. Here we present the mitolina simulation software that we use to describe the distribution of the number of mitogenomes in a population that match a given mitogenome, and investigate its dependence on population size and growth rate, and on a database count of the mitogenome.Further, we report on the distribution of the number of meioses separating pairs of individuals with matching mitogenome. Our results have important implications for assessing the weight of mtDNA profile evidence in forensic science, but mtDNA analysis has many non-human applications, for example in tracking the source of ivory. Our methods and software can also be used for simulations to validate models of population history in human or non-human populations.
Author Summary 1The maternally-inherited mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) represents only a small fraction of the hu-2 man genome, but mtDNA profiles are important in forensic science, for example when a biological 3 evidence sample is degraded or when maternal relatedness is questioned. For forensic mtDNA 4 analysis, it is important to know how many individuals share a mtDNA profile. We present a 5 simulation model of mtDNA profile evolution, implemented in open-source software, and use it to 6 describe the distribution of the number of individuals with matching mitogenomes, and their matri-7 lineal relatedness. The latter is measured as the number of mother-child pairs in the lineage linking 8 two matching individuals. We also describe how these distributions change when conditioning on 9 a count of the profile in a frequency database. 10 12 victims of mass disasters, the sources of biological samples derived from crime scenes or to confirm 13 matrilineal relatedness [1, 2, 3]. The autosomal genome is much larger and has higher discriminatory 14 power, but the mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) has multiple copies per cell, allowing better 15 recovery of sequence information from degraded samples [1, 3], including ancient DNA [4, 5]. In 16 addition, some biological samples such as fingernails, old bones, teeth and hair have mtDNA but 17 little or heavily degraded autosomal DNA. 18 It has now become widely feasible to sequence all 16,569 mitogenome sites as part of a forensic 19 investigation [6, 7, 8]. For autosomal short tandem repeat (STR) profiles, there are two alleles per 20 locus and because of the effects of recombination, the alleles at distinct loci are trea...