Anatomy of Party Sorting: Partisan Polarization of Voters and Party Switching

Abstract

Scholars explain that the ideological divide among the political elites has heightened the homogeneity in voters' ideology within parties, thereby resulting in the appearance of ideological polarization in the American electorate today. This article postulates and tests four modes of party sorting in the United States based upon: (1) if partisan voters adjust their ideology to the preference of their party elites or switch to the ideologically proximate part; and (2) whether partisan voters respond to the ideological shifts of their own party or opposition party. The empirical results suggest that the conservative voters in the Democratic Party switched to the Republican Party in favorable response to the conservative shift of the Republican Party members in Congress in past decades, whereas the liberal voters in the Republican Party changed their partisanship to Democratic in negative reaction to the rightward shift of Republican elites. Related Articles Gershtenson, Joseph, Brian W. Smith, and William R. Mangun. 2006. “Friends of the Earth? Partisanship, Party Control of Congress, and Environmental Legislation in Congress.” Politics & Policy 34 (1): 66‐92. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2006.00004.x Grossmann, Matt. 2014. “The Varied Effects of Policy Cues on Partisan Opinions.” Politics & Policy 42 (6): 881‐904. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12102 Knuckey, Jonathan. 2009. “Explaining Partisan Change among Northeastern Whites.” Politics & Policy 37 (6): 1331‐1355. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2009.00222.x

Pressure to conform: Political self-censorship among co-partisans

“…However, this phenomenon does not reflect every members' experience. For some, a change in the party's opinion does not necessarily lead to a shift in their personal opinion (Carsey and Layman 2006;Dejaeghere and Dassonneville 2017;Nordø 2021;Saeki 2019). It is this specific juncture that motivates my research.…”

Note from the Editors

“…Our fourth article joins P&P's long and distinguished collection of studies on partisanship and voting behavior in the United States and beyond (see e.g., Grossmann, 2014; Reilly & Hedberg, 2022; Saeki, 2019). Reilly and Hunting (2023) contribute to literature on the independent voter, emphasizing that Independents' voting patterns are more volatile in terms of party loyalty, are decidedly unpredictable, and are more distinct from that of partisans than previously thought.…”