Analyzing the operational performance of the hydrological models in an alpine flood forecasting system

Achleitner, Stefan; Schöber, Johannes; Rinderer, Michael; Leonhardt, Günther; Schöberl, Friedrich; Kirnbauer, R.; Schönlaub, Helmut

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.07.047

Cited by 33 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…HQsim has been tested extensively for Alpine watersheds (e.g. Dobler et al, 2010;Achleitner et al, 2011) and has already been used to study climate change impacts on the runoff regime and flood hazard potential of the Lech river.…”

Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying different sources of uncertainty in hydrological projections in an Alpine watershed

Dobler¹,

Hagemann

Wilby

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

160

104

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Abstract. Many studies have investigated potential climate change impacts on regional hydrology; less attention has been given to the components of uncertainty that affect these scenarios. This study quantifies uncertainties resulting from (i) General Circulation Models (GCMs), (ii) Regional Climate Models (RCMs), (iii) bias-correction of RCMs, and (iv) hydrological model parameterization using a multi-model framework. This consists of three GCMs, three RCMs, three bias-correction techniques, and sets of hydrological model parameters. The study is performed for the Lech watershed (∼ 1000 km 2 ), located in the Northern Limestone Alps, Austria. Bias-corrected climate data are used to drive the hydrological model HQsim to simulate runoff under present and future (2070-2099) climate conditions. Hydrological model parameter uncertainty is assessed by Monte Carlo sampling. The model chain is found to perform well under present climate conditions. However, hydrological projections are associated with high uncertainty, mainly due to the choice of GCM and RCM. Uncertainty due to bias-correction is found to have greatest influence on projections of extreme river flows, and the choice of method(s) is an important consideration in snowmelt systems. Overall, hydrological model parameterization is least important. The study also demonstrates how an improved understanding of the physical processes governing future river flows can help focus attention on the scientifically tractable elements of the uncertainty.

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Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying different sources of uncertainty in hydrological projections in an Alpine watershed

Dobler¹,

Hagemann

Wilby

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

160

104

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The model has been applied for several Alpine catchments and is currently part of the flood‐forecasting model for the river Inn in Tyrol (HoPI, Achleitner et al . , ). HQsim uses homogeneous hydrological response units (HRUs), which are expected to show a similar hydrological reaction.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Climate change effects on hydrological system conditions influencing generation of storm runoff in small Alpine catchments

et al. 2017

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Floods and debris flows in small Alpine torrent catchments (<10 km2) arise from a combination of critical antecedent system state conditions and mostly convective precipitation events with high precipitation intensities. Thus, climate change may influence the magnitude–frequency relationship of extreme events twofold: by a modification of the occurrence probabilities of critical hydrological system conditions and by a change of event precipitation characteristics. Three small Alpine catchments in different altitudes in Western Austria (Ruggbach, Brixenbach and Längentalbach catchment) were investigated by both field experiments and process‐based simulation. Rainfall–runoff model (HQsim) runs driven by localized climate scenarios (CNRM‐RM4.5/ARPEGE, MPI‐REMO/ECHAM5 and ICTP‐RegCM3/ECHAM5) were used in order to estimate future frequencies of stormflow triggering system state conditions. According to the differing altitudes of the study catchments, two effects of climate change on the hydrological systems can be observed. On one hand, the seasonal system state conditions of medium altitude catchments are most strongly affected by air temperature‐controlled processes such as the development of the winter snow cover as well as evapotranspiration. On the other hand, the unglaciated high‐altitude catchment is less sensitive to climate change‐induced shifts regarding days with critical antecedent soil moisture and desiccated litter layer due to its elevation‐related small proportion of sensitive areas. For the period 2071–2100, the number of days with critical antecedent soil moisture content will be significantly reduced to about 60% or even less in summer in all catchments. In contrast, the number of days with dried‐out litter layers causing hydrophobic effects will increase by up to 8%–11% of the days in the two lower altitude catchments. The intensity analyses of heavy precipitation events indicate a clear increase in rain intensities of up to 10%.

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“…Die Modellierung von Schneeprozessen in Abflussprognosemodellen ist daher bereits eine fixer Bestandteil in vielen Real-timePrognosemodellen. Schneemessungen stellen dabei, neben dem Abfluss, eine wichtige Zielgröße zur Kalibrierung der Modelle dar (Achleitner et al 2012;Schöber et al 2010;Nester et al 2012 (Sturm et al 2009;Schöber et al 2016 1950-2008) (1949-2010) (1952-2010) (1949-2010) (1949-2010) (1949-2001) (1949-2010) (1949-2010 1950-2006) (1949-2010) (1952-2010) (1949-2010) (1949-2000) (1949-2001) (1966-1985) …”

Section: White Water Reserves -Analysis and Modeling Of Snow Density unclassified

Weiße Wasserspeicher – Analyse und Modellierung der Schneedichte in den österreichischen Alpen und Alpenvorländern

Achleitner

Schöber

2017

Österr Wasser- und Abfallw

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White water reserves -analysis and modeling of snow density in the Austrian Alps and the Alpine ForelandAbstract This article presents an empirical, statistical snow-density and snow-water-equivalent model based on an Austria-wide dataset of ca. 50,000 snow-depth measurements. The intentionally simple model dispenses with physical or conceptual snowpack modeling and makes it possible to calculate the snow water equivalent on the basis of snow depth.Due its the low temporal and spatial variability, snow density is modeled as a function of snow depth, taking into account the usual seasonal changes in snow depth and density. Similarly, by making individual adjustments to the model, the location (region and altitude) is also taken into consideration. The modeled density, together with the measured snow depth, are then used to calculate the snow water equivalent. The results show that the chosen methodology can be used to provide valid estimations of the snow water equivalent and density throughout Austria.There are various applications for this approach in practical water resource management: rapid field estimates of the snow water equivalent, conversion of individual measurements, and spatial applications. Today, as in the past, there are significantly fewer locations where the snow water equivalent is regularly measured than there are locations where the snow depth is regularly measured. This model allows more spatially accurate statements regarding the snow water equivalent to be made than would be possible on the basis of infrequent water equivalent measurements alone. A further application is climatological determination of the snow water equivalent on the basis of historical snowdepth measurements. There is also an increasing focus on applications to determine the amount of water currently stored as snow using the latest snowdepth measurements from the network of stations. This is of particular interest in drainage areas where the outflow is used to generate hydropower.

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Analyzing the operational performance of the hydrological models in an alpine flood forecasting system

Cited by 33 publications

References 23 publications

Quantifying different sources of uncertainty in hydrological projections in an Alpine watershed

Quantifying different sources of uncertainty in hydrological projections in an Alpine watershed

Climate change effects on hydrological system conditions influencing generation of storm runoff in small Alpine catchments

Weiße Wasserspeicher – Analyse und Modellierung der Schneedichte in den österreichischen Alpen und Alpenvorländern

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