Analyzing the influences of the selection of the RCP scenario and the reference period on the evaluation results of EURO‐CORDEX simulations for Hungary

Abstract

Temperature and precipitation simulations are evaluated for Hungary based on 11 regional climate model experiments with 0.1° horizontal resolution from the EURO‐CORDEX programme. The aim of the study is to assess the different simulations and the multi‐model (MM) mean as well for 1991–2005 and 2006–2020 separately, on a monthly basis. For the period 2006–2020, three different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are taken into consideration, so the uncertainty arising from the radiative forcing pathways can also be analysed. Specifically, we addressed three questions: (i) Which is the best model simulation for 1991–2005 and for 2006–2020? (ii) Which scenario is closer to the observations, regarding the period 2006–2020? (iii) Which has a greater effect: the selection of the model or the scenario? According to our results, the spatial and the annual distribution of temperature is simulated appropriately by the MM mean, however, in the case of precipitation the maximum values occur in spring, instead of summer. In 2006–2020, in the first half of the year, simulated temperature is closer to the observations, when the RCP8.5 scenario is taken into account. However, in the case of precipitation, the MM mean of RCP4.5 driven simulations generally performed the best. In the investigated period, the selection of the model simulation has a greater effect compared to the selection of the scenario.

Spatial and temporal analysis of drought-related climate indices for Hungary for 1971–2100

“…and Livezey, R.E. (2013) found that using alternative periods is appropriate in the case of temperature, while for precipitation, Kis, A. and Pongrácz, R. (2023) found that the 15-year-long period is capable to represent the variability of the 50-year-long data. We focused only on the summer months (June, July and August) or the spring + summer half-year (from March to August), as water deficit is the most critical in these seasons for cultivated plants and forests.…”